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Political, Institutional and Economic Determinants of Coalition Cabinets Survival

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  • Fabrizio Carmignani

    (Department of Economics, University of Glasgow)

Abstract

Event history analysis is used to investigate the determinants of cabinet duration in a sample of 14 western European parliamentary democracies. A broad set of covariates is considered in order to account for the impact of political, institutional, environmental and economic factors. It turns out that the probability for a government to collapse increases the higher the degree of ideological heterogeneity of coalition partners, the higher the degree of polarisation of the system, the lower the rate of survival of the legislature, the shorter the time horizon to next mandatory elections and the worse the overall economic conditions of the country. Some other institutional and political variables do play some role. Finally there is clear evidence of positive duration dependence: the longer the cabinet has stayed in power, the higher the probability it will collapse in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabrizio Carmignani, 1999. "Political, Institutional and Economic Determinants of Coalition Cabinets Survival," Working Papers 24, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jul 1999.
    • Handle: RePEc:mib:wpaper:24
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