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Diversification and the Value of Exploration Portfolios

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Author Info
James L. Smith
Rex Thompson

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Abstract

Conventional wisdom holds that dependence among geological prospects increases exploration risk. However, dependence also creates the option to truncate exploration if early results are discouraging. We show that the value of this option creates incentives for explorationists to plunge into dependence; i.e., to assemble portfolios of highly correlated exploration prospects. Risk-neutral and risk-averse investors are distinguished not by the plunging phenomenon, but by the threshold level of dependence that triggers such behavior. Aversion to risk does not imply aversion to dependence. Indeed the potential to plunge may be larger for risk-averse investors than for risk-neutral investors.

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Paper provided by Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research in its series Working Papers with number 0507.

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Date of creation: Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:mee:wpaper:0507

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lawrence M. Benveniste & Alexander Ljungqvist & William J. Wilhelm & Xiaoyun Yu, 2003. "Evidence of Information Spillovers in the Production of Investment Banking Services," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 577-608, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Roberts, Kevin & Weitzman, Martin L, 1981. "Funding Criteria for Research, Development, and Exploration Projects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(5), pages 1261-88, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Rainer Brosch, 2001. "Portfolio-aspects in real options management," Working Paper Series: Finance and Accounting 66, Department of Finance, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main. [Downloadable!]
  4. Thijssen, J.J.J. & Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2001. "Strategic investment under uncertainty and information spillovers," Discussion Paper 91, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  5. Grenadier, Steven R, 1999. "Information Revelation through Option Exercise," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 95-129.
  6. Gilbert, Richard J, 1979. "Optimal Depletion of an Uncertain Stock," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(1), pages 47-57, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Paddock, James L & Siegel, Daniel R & Smith, James L, 1988. "Option Valuation of Claims on Real Assets: The Case of Offshore Petroleum Leases," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(3), pages 479-508, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Sjoerd van Bekkum & Enrico Pennings & Han Smit, 2007. "A Real Options Perspective on R&D Portfolio Diversification," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-003/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 15 May 2009. [Downloadable!]
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