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Zur Simulated Maximum-Likelihood-Schätzung von Mehrperioden-Mehralternativen-Probitmodellen

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Author Info
Ziegler, Andreas
Eymann, Angelika (Institut für Volkswirtschaft und Statistik (IVS))
Abstract

Die Simulated Maximum-Likelihood-Methode erlaubt die Schätzung von multinomialen Probitmodellen für Querschnitts- oder Paneldaten bei einer größeren Zahl von Entscheidungsalternativen. Im Rahmen von Monte-Carlo-Studien wird hier gezeigt, daß die Simulated Maximum-Likelihood-Methode bei Anwendung des Geweke-Hajivassiliou-Keane-Simulators auch für eine relativ geringe Anzahl an Zufallsziehungen zu exakten Schätzern der Koeffizienten der erklärenden Variablen im Mehrperioden-Mehralternativen-Probitmodell führt. Die Präzision der Schätzung der Varianz-Kovarianz-Parameter scheint dagegen sensitiv bezüglich der Größe der individuellen Auswahlwahrscheinlichkeiten, d.h. bezüglich der Anzahl der Entscheidungsalternativen und der Panelwellen zu sein. In einem einperiodigen Mehralternativen-Probitmodell lassen sich die Varianz-Kovarianz-Parameter relativ exakt bestimmen. Die Schätzgenauigkeit der Varianz-Kovarianz-Parameter im Mehrperioden-Mehralternativen-Probitmodell scheint dagegen mit zunehmender Anzahl der Perioden und Alternativen zu sinken.

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Paper provided by Institut für Volkswirtschaft und Statistik (IVS), University of Mannheim in its series IVS discussion paper series with number 588.

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Handle: RePEc:mea:ivswpa:588

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