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The Future of the Euro : A Public Choice Perspective

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Author Info
Vaubel, Roland (Institut für Volkswirtschaft und Statistik (IVS))
Abstract

Judging from past inflation and opinion poll data, France occupies the inflation median in the ECB Council if real exchange rate changes are ignored. Central bank independence does not have a significant effect on inflation if the population's sensitivity to inflation is controlled for. Owing to a clustering of election dates, the economy of the euro-zone is likely to be booming from May 2002 to June 2004. Between the euro-zone and the U.S. dollar, nominal exchange-rate trends are increasingly in line with the required real exchange rate trends. In this respect, exchange-rate flexibility has outperformed the Bretton Woods system. Of all 15 EU members, Britain is the least suitable candidate for joining the euro-zone as far as the need for real exchange rate adjustment is concerned. Most of the Eastern European countries require even considerably larger real exchange rate adjustments vis-à-vis the euro-zone. The European System of Central Banks is highly overstaffed by international standards. Its personnel has to be cut by at least 12 per cent (6,520 persons), notably in France, Belgium and Italy.

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Paper provided by Institut für Volkswirtschaft und Statistik (IVS), University of Mannheim in its series IVS discussion paper series with number 570.

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Handle: RePEc:mea:ivswpa:570

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Postal: Institut für Volkswirtschaft und Statistik, L7, 3-5, Room 408, University of Mannheim, 68131 Mannheim
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  8. Sinn, Hans-Werner & Feist, Holger, 1997. "Eurowinners and Eurolosers: The distribution of seigniorage wealth in EMU1," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 665-689, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Susan M. Collins & Francesco Giavazzi, 1993. "Attitudes toward Inflation and the Viability of Fixed Exchange Rates: Evidence from the EMS," NBER Chapters, in: A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform, pages 547-586 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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