IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mde/wpaper/0042.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing The Endogeneity Of Oca Conditions In Emu

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Vieira

    (CEFAGE-UE, Universidade de Évora, Portugal)

  • Isabel Vieira

    (CEFAGE-UE, Universidade de Évora, Portugal)

Abstract

The academic and political discussion about which countries met the conditions for joining EMU was decisively influenced by the Frankel and Rose (1997) hypothesis concerning endogenous OCA properties. The answer to their question "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?" was a definite yes in their ex ante analysis. Our ex post examination of the euro's first decade, however suggests that the hypothesis does not hold for some countries. This paper utilizes panel data estimation techniques to compute OCA indices that help assess the OCA endogeneity hypothesis and signal current external and fiscal imbalances.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Vieira & Isabel Vieira, 2011. "Assessing The Endogeneity Of Oca Conditions In Emu," GEE Papers 0042, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Nov 2011.
  • Handle: RePEc:mde:wpaper:0042
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.gee.gov.pt/RePEc/WorkingPapers/GEE_PAPERS_42.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2011
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dellas, Harris & Tavlas, George S., 2009. "An optimum-currency-area odyssey," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1117-1137, November.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    3. Martin Feldstein, 1997. "The Political Economy of the European Economic and Monetary Union: Political Sources of an Economic Liability," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 23-42, Fall.
    4. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Current Account Deficits in Rich Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 191-219, June.
    5. Chrysost Bangaké, 2008. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Optimum Currency Area: Evidence from Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(12), pages 1-10.
    6. Kurt Geppert & Andreas Stephan, 2008. "Regional disparities in the European Union: Convergence and agglomeration," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(2), pages 193-217, June.
    7. Robert Shelburne, 2008. "Current Account Deficits in European Emerging Markets," ECE Discussion Papers Series 2008_2, UNECE.
    8. Tal Sadeh, 2005. "Who Can Adjust to the Euro?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(11), pages 1651-1678, November.
    9. Nikos Christodoulakis, 2009. "Ten Years Of Emu: Convergence, Divergence And New Policy Priorities," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 208(1), pages 86-100, April.
    10. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-499, June.
    11. Roman Horvath, 2007. "Ready for Euro? Evidence on EU new member states," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(14), pages 1083-1086.
    12. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Amina Lahrèche-Révil, 2000. "The Euro as a Monetary Anchor in the CEECs," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 303-321, October.
    13. Roman Horvath, 2005. "Exchange rate variability, pressures and optimum currency area criteria: some empirical evidence from the 1990s," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(15), pages 919-922.
    14. Martin Cincibuch, David Vávra, 2001. "Toward the European Monetary Union - A Need for Exchange Rate Flexibility?," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(6), pages 23-63, November.
    15. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
    16. Schweickert, Rainer, 2001. "Assessing the advantages of EMU-enlargement for the EU and the accession countries: a comparative indicator approach," Kiel Working Papers 1080, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. Kim, Yoonbai & Chow, Hwee Kwan, 2003. "Optimum currency area in Europe: an alternative assessment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 297-304, December.
    18. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2008:i:12:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Knobel, A. & Mironov, A., 2015. "Assessment of CIS Countries Readiness for Creation of Currency Union," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 76-101.
    2. Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande & Harold Ngalawa, 2017. "The endogeneity of business cycle synchronisation in SADC: A GMM approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1358914-135, January.
    3. Philip Arestis & Peter Phelps, 2016. "Endogeneity Analysis of Output Synchronization in the Current and Prospective EMU," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 525-543, May.
    4. Kunovac, Davor & Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez & Sun, Yiqiao, 2022. "A new optimum currency area index for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2730, European Central Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlos Vieira & Isabel Vieira, 2013. "Monetary Integration In Eastern And Southern Africa: Choosing A Currency Peg For Comesa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 81(3), pages 356-372, September.
    2. Michal SKOREPA, 2013. "Troubles in the Euro Area Periphery: The View through the Lens of a Simple Convergence-Sensitive Optimum Currency Area Index," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(2), pages 129-151, May.
    3. Andrea Bonilla‐Bolaños, 2021. "A step further in the theory of regional integration: A look at the South American integration strategy," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 845-873, July.
    4. Ansgar Belke & Clemens Domnick & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: Core vs. Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 863-892, November.
    5. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2004. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intra‐industry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(1), pages 1-12, January.
    6. Hochreiter, Eduard & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Winckler, Georg, 2002. "Monetary union: European lessons, Latin American prospects," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 297-321, December.
    7. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Kamil Galuscak & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Kamila Kulhava , 2015. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2015," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as15 edited by Kamila Kulhava & Lucie Matejkova, January.
    8. Coulibaly, Issiaka & Gnimassoun, Blaise, 2013. "Optimality of a monetary union: New evidence from exchange rate misalignments in West Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 463-482.
    9. Tweneboah Senzu, Emmanuel, 2020. "The advanced proposed architecture of Eco-currency; technical analysis of West Africa single currency program," MPRA Paper 102141, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Peter Dreuw, 2023. "Structural time series models and synthetic controls—assessing the impact of the euro adoption," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 681-725, February.
    11. Massimo Amato & Kako Nubukpo, 2020. "Una nuova moneta per gli stati dell'Africa dell'Ovest. Le condizioni teoriche e politiche della sua fattibilità (A new currency for West African states: The theoretical and political conditions of its," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 73(289), pages 83-107.
    12. Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2010. "La théorie des zones monétaires optimales au regard de l'euro : Quels enseignements après dix années d'union économique et monétaire en Europe ?," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 120(2), pages 379-419.
    13. Amina Lahrèche-Révil & Juliette Milgram, 2006. "Exchange-rate policies and trade in the MENA countries," ThE Papers 06/07, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    14. Issiaka Coulibaly & Blaise Gnimassoun, 2012. "Optimality of a monetary union : New evidence from exchange rate misalignments in West Africa," Working Papers hal-04141049, HAL.
    15. Bąk Henryk & Maciejewski Sebastian, 2015. "Endogeneity and Specialization in the European Monetary Union," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 46(1), pages 7-40, June.
    16. Katerina Arnostova & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Martin Gurtler & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Petr Kr, 2016. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2016," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as16 edited by Katerina Arnostova & Lucie Matejkova, January.
    17. Mohd Hussain Kunroo & Irfan Ahmad Sofi & Naushad Ali Azad, 2016. "Trade implications of the Euro in EMU countries: a panel gravity analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 391-413, May.
    18. Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2012. "Identifying the Shocks behind Business Cycle Asynchrony in Euroland," Working Papers 12-11, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    19. Mohd Hussain Kunroo, 2015. "Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," Review of Market Integration, India Development Foundation, vol. 7(2), pages 87-116, August.
    20. Naib ALAKBAROV & Utku UTKULU, 2020. "Asymmetries and Macroeconomic Shocks: The Pre-Crisis Period and Evidence for Europe," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 28(44).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    optimum currency areas; OCA index; monetary union;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mde:wpaper:0042. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joana Almodovar (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/geegvpt.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.