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Assessing The Endogeneity Of Oca Conditions In Emu

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  • Carlos Vieira

    (CEFAGE-UE, Universidade de Évora, Portugal)

  • Isabel Vieira

    (CEFAGE-UE, Universidade de Évora, Portugal)

Abstract

The academic and political discussion about which countries met the conditions for joining EMU was decisively influenced by the Frankel and Rose (1997) hypothesis concerning endogenous OCA properties. The answer to their question "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?" was a definite yes in their ex ante analysis. Our ex post examination of the euro's first decade, however suggests that the hypothesis does not hold for some countries. This paper utilizes panel data estimation techniques to compute OCA indices that help assess the OCA endogeneity hypothesis and signal current external and fiscal imbalances.

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File URL: http://www.gee.min-economia.pt/RePEc/WorkingPapers/GEE_PAPERS_42.pdf
File Function: First version, 2011
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia e da Inovação in its series GEE Papers with number 0042.

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Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2011
Date of revision: Nov 2011
Handle: RePEc:mde:wpaper:0042

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Keywords: optimum currency areas; OCA index; monetary union;

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  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Nikos Christodoulakis, 2009. "Ten Years of EMU: convergence, divergence and new policy priorities," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 22, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
  3. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Current Account Deficits in Rich Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 191-219, June.
  4. Kurt Geppert & Michael Happich & Andreas Stephan, 2004. "Regional disparities in the European Union: Convergence and Agglomeration," ERSA conference papers ersa04p219, European Regional Science Association.
  5. Robert Shelburne, 2008. "Current Account Deficits in European Emerging Markets," International Trade and Finance Association Conference Papers 1130, International Trade and Finance Association.
  6. Dellas, Harris & Tavlas, George S., 2009. "An optimum-currency-area odyssey," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1117-1137, November.
  7. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2008:i:12:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
  9. Roman Horvath, 2005. "Exchange rate variability, pressures and optimum currency area criteria: some empirical evidence from the 1990s," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(15), pages 919-922.
  10. Rainer Schweickert, 2001. "Assessing the Advantages of EMU-Enlargement for the EU and the Accession Countries: A Comparative Indicator Approach," Kiel Working Papers 1080, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  11. Kim, Yoonbai & Chow, Hwee Kwan, 2003. "Optimum currency area in Europe: an alternative assessment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 297-304, December.
  12. Roman Horvath, 2007. "Ready for Euro? Evidence on EU new member states," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(14), pages 1083-1086.
  13. Martin Cincibuch, David Vávra, 2001. "Toward the European Monetary Union - A Need for Exchange Rate Flexibility?," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 39(6), pages 23-63, November.
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