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Uncertainty, Trade Integration and the Optimal Level of Protection in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods

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Michele Di Maio (University of Macerata)

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Abstract

This paper analyzes how increasing trade integration affects individual utility when the international specialization pattern is stochastic, i.e. when the number of varieties each country produces depends on the realization of a random variable. I employ a Ricardian continuum of goods model to show that in this case a trade off emerges. As in the standard model, higher trade integration reduces prices and increases expected real income. However, higher trade integration, reducing the number of active sectors in the economy, also increases the displacement cost the worker would suffer in a bad state (i.e. when the sector she is employed into has to close down because, ex-post, the foreign country’s competing sector results to be more efficient). The main result of the model is that there exists an optimal level of protection that it is higher the smaller the price reduction induced by trade integration and the more technologically similar are countries.

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Paper provided by Macerata University, Department of Finance and Economic Sciences in its series Working Papers with number 34-2006.

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Date of creation: Oct 2006
Date of revision: Nov 2008
Publication status: Forthcoming in Structural Change and Economic Dynamics
Handle: RePEc:mcr:wpdief:wpaper00034

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Related research
Keywords: Trade Intergration; Ricardian Model with a continuum of goods; Optimal protection; Uncertainty;

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  1. Tom Krebs & Pravin Krishna, 2005. "Trade Policy, Income Risk and Welfare," 2005 Meeting Papers 271, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  2. Fernandez, Raquel & Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Resistance to Reform: Status Quo Bias in the Presence of Individual-Specific Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1146-55, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 997-1032, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley & Samuelson, Paul A, 1977. "Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 823-39, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Newbery, David M G & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Pareto Inferior Trade," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(1), pages 1-12, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Imbs, Jean & Wacziarg, Romain, 2000. "Stages of Diversification," CEPR Discussion Papers 2642, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Pagano Ugo & Samuel Bowles, 2003. "Economic Integration, Cultural Standardization,and the Politics of Social Insurance," Working Papers wp64, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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