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Users and Suppliers of Physician Services: A Tale of Two Populations

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Author Info
Frank T. Denton
Amiram Gafni
Byron G. Spencer

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Abstract

Physician shortages and their implications for required increases in the physician population are matters of considerable interest in many health care systems, in light especially of the widespread phenomenon of population ageing. To determine the extent to which shortages exist one needs to study the population of users of physician services as well as that of the physicians themselves. In this paper we study both, using the province of Ontario, Canada, as an example. The user population is projected and the implications for requirements calculated, conditional on given utilization rates. On the supplier side, the age and other characteristics of the (active) physician population are examined and patterns of withdrawal investigated. The necessary future growth of supply is calculated, assuming alternative levels of present shortages. The effects of population change on requirements are found to be smaller in the future than in the decade 1981- 1991, in the aggregate, not far from the effects in 1991-2001, but highly variable among different categories of physicians.

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File URL: http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/qsep/p/qsep399.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by McMaster University in its series Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports with number 399.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2005
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Handle: RePEc:mcm:qseprr:399

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Related research
Keywords: physician shortages; physician requirements; population aging;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Boris Kralj, 2001. "Physician Distribution and Physician Shortage Intensity in Ontario," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 27(2), pages 167-178, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Frank T. Denton & Amiram Gafni & Byron G. Spencer, 2001. "Population Change and the Requirements for Physicians: The Case of Ontario," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 27(4), pages 469-485, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Denton, Frank T. & Gafni, Amiram & Spencer, Byron G., 2002. "Exploring the effects of population change on the costs of physician services," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 781-803, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 2008. "An Application of Price and Quantity Indexes in the Analysis of Changes in Expenditures on Physician Services," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 426, McMaster University. [Downloadable!]
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