Time Series Properties and Stochastic Forecasts: Some Econometrics of Mortality from the Canadian Laboratory
AbstractMethods for time series modeling of mortality and stochastic forecasting of life expectancies are explored, using Canadian data. Consideration is given first to alternative indexes of aggregate mortality. Age-sex group system models are then estimated. Issues in the forecasting of life expectancies are discussed and their quantitative implications investigated. Experimental stochastic forecasts are presented and discussed, based on nonparametric, partially parametric, and fully parametric methods, representing alternatives to the well known Lee- Carter method. Some thoughts are offered on the interpretation of historical data in generating future probability distributions, and on the treatment of demographic uncertainty in long-run policy planning.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by McMaster University in its series Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports with number 360.
Length: 56 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2001
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, Ontario, L8S 4M4
Phone: (905) 525-9140 ext. 22765
Fax: (905) 521-8232
Web page: http://www.mcmaster.ca/economics/
More information through EDIRC
mortality; life expectancy; stochastic forecasting;
Other versions of this item:
- Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 2001. "Time Series Properties and Stochastic Forecasts: Some Econometrics of Mortality from the Canadian Laboratory," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 45, McMaster University.
- C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2001-06-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-HEA-2001-06-22 (Health Economics)
- NEP-IAS-2001-06-22 (Insurance Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Nan Li & Ronald Lee, 2005. "Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the lee-carter method," Demography, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 575-594, August.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.