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Cohort, Year and Age Effects in Canadian Wage Data

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  • John B. Burbidge
  • Lonnie Magee
  • A. Leslie Robb

Abstract

We use Canadian Surveys of Consumer Finances 1971-1993 to study the wages of full-time, full-year male and female workers. Median real wages of 24-year-old males without a university degree fell by 25% between 1978 and 1993. For 24-year-old females the decline was more modest and reversed in 1987, but real wages in 1993 were still significantly lower than they were in 1978. We investigate whether these changes are permanent "cohort" effects or more temporary "year" effects. Graphs of median wages against year and age indicate some periods where year effects are more prominent than cohort effects and other periods where the reverse is true. We then compare the results from two models, one assigning the trends to year effects, the other assigning them to cohort effects, and use these models to produce real wage projections.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by McMaster University in its series Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers with number 19.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: Jul 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mcm:iesopp:19

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Keywords: SCF; wages; cohort;

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  1. Paul Beaudry & David A. Green, 2000. "Cohort patterns in Canadian earnings: assessing the role of skill premia in inequality trends," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 33(4), pages 907-936, November.
  2. Angus Deaton & Christina H. Paxson, 1993. "Saving, Growth, and Aging in Taiwan," NBER Working Papers 4330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Jonathan Skinner, 1981. "The Efficiency Gains from Dynamic Tax Reform," NBER Working Papers 0819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Gosling, Amanda & Machin, Stephen & Meghir, Costas, 2000. "The Changing Distribution of Male Wages in the U.K," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(4), pages 635-66, October.
  5. Burbidge, John B & Magee, Lonnie & Robb, A Leslie, 1997. "Canadian Wage Inequality over the Last Two Decades," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 181-203.
  6. Juhn, Chinhui & Murphy, Kevin M & Pierce, Brooks, 1993. "Wage Inequality and the Rise in Returns to Skill," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 410-42, June.
  7. A. L. Robb & L. Magee & J. B. Burbidge, 1992. "Kernel Smoothed Consumption-Age Quantiles," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(3), pages 669-80, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Marenglen Marku & Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, 2006. "Reversal of fortunes: a cohort analysis of lifetime earnings in Iran," Working Papers e06-1, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
  2. Paul Beaudry & David Green, 1997. "Cohort Patterns in Canadian Earnings: Assessing the Role of Skill Premia in Inequality Trends," NBER Working Papers 6132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Sung-Hee Jeon, 2004. "The impacts of the 1988 tax reform on married women's labour supply in Canada," Department of Economics Working Papers 2004-19, McMaster University.
  4. Elena Giarda, 2007. "The Worsening of Wage Expectations in Italy: a Study Based on Administrative data," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 57, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
  5. Lonnie Magee & John Burbidge & Les Robb, 2000. "The Correlation Between Husband's and Wife's Education: Canada, 1971-1996," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 353, McMaster University.
  6. Thomas F. Crossley & Yuri Ostrovsky, 2003. "A Synthetic Cohort Analysis of Canadian Housing Careers," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 107, McMaster University.

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