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The rise in Dublin city house prices: bubble, fad or just fundamentals

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Author Info

  • Maurice J. Roche

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland, Maynooth, Ireland)

Abstract

The recent dramatic rise in house prices in Dublin has been regularly discussed in the media. An obvious question is whether the seemingly ever-increasing house prices are driven by market fundamentals or by speculation? While the observed increase in house prices is due to excess demand for housing, it is the nature of this excess demand that we investigate in this paper. We decompose house prices in Dublin into fundamental and non-fundamental components using a variety of measures. A regime-switching model is estimated and tested to explore whether speculative bubbles, fads or just fundamentals drive house prices in Dublin. Our main findings suggest that there may be a speculative bubble in the Dublin house prices.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth in its series Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series with number n920799.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Jul 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:may:mayecw:n920799

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Postal: Maynooth, Co. Kildare
Phone: 353-1-7083728
Fax: 353-1-7083934
Web page: http://economics.nuim.ie
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Related research

Keywords: Regime-switching; House prices; Bubbles; Fads;

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Cited by:
  1. Trevor Fitzpatrick & Kieran Mcquinn, 2007. "House Prices And Mortgage Credit: Empirical Evidence For Ireland," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(1), pages 82-103, 01.
  2. Kennedy, Gerard & McQuinn, Kieran, 2011. "Scenarios for Irish House Prices," Economic Letters 02/EL/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
  3. Mc Quinn, Kieran, 2004. "A Model of the Irish Housing Sector," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/04, Central Bank of Ireland.

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