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Testing for Breaks in Cointegrated Panels

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Abstract

We investigate the issue of testing for structural breaks in large cointegrated panels with common and idiosyncratic regressors. We prove a panel Functional Central Limit Theorem. We show that the estimated coefficients of the common regressors have a mixed normal distribution, whilst the estimated coefficients of the idiosyncratic regressors have a normal distribution. We consider strong dependence across the idiosyncratic regressors by allowing for the presence of (stationary and nonstationary) common factors. We show that tests based on transformations of Wald-type statistics have power versus alternatives of order

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Paper provided by Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University in its series Center for Policy Research Working Papers with number 135.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:max:cprwps:135

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Keywords: Structural change; Panel cointegration; Common trends JEL codes: C23;

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  1. Zhongjun Qu & Pierre Perron, 2005. "Estimating and testing structural changes in multivariate regressions," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-012, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  2. Phillips, P.C.B., 1988. "Weak Convergence of Sample Covariance Matrices to Stochastic Integrals Via Martingale Approximations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(03), pages 528-533, December.
  3. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2008. "The limit distribution of the estimates in cointegrated regression models with multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 59-73, September.
  4. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2010. "Testing for Multiple Structural Changes in Cointegrated Regression Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(4), pages 503-522.
  5. Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1998. "Asymptotics for Nonlinear Transformations of Integrated Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1182, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  6. Jörg Breitung & Sandra Eickmeier, 2006. "Dynamic factor models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 90(1), pages 27-42, March.
  7. Banerjee, Anindya & Urga, Giovanni, 2005. "Modelling structural breaks, long memory and stock market volatility: an overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 1-34.
  8. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2009. "Testing for structural breaks in dynamic factor models," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  9. Bai, Jushan & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1998. "Testing for and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432, July.
  10. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
  11. Chen, Liang & Dolado, Juan Jose & Gonzalo, Jesus, 2011. "Detecting big structural breaks in large factor models," MPRA Paper 31344, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Lucrezia Reichlin & Peter Rappoport, 1989. "Segmented trends and non-stationary time series," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10169, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  13. Peter C.B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1222, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  14. Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  15. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  16. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
  17. Bai, Jushan, 2010. "Common breaks in means and variances for panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(1), pages 78-92, July.
  18. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
  19. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
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