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A Dynamic Spatial Panel Data Approach to the German Wave Curve

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A wave curve is a decreasing function of wages on the regional unemployment rate. Most empirical studies on the wave curve ignore possible spatial interaction effects between the regions which are the primary units of research. This paper reconsiders the western German wage curve with a special focus on the geography of labour markets. Spillovers between regions are taken into account. The paper tests whether the unemployment rate in the larger surrounding region also affects wages. In addition, agglomeration effects and effects of local monopsony are assessed. The main data base is a random sample of 974,179 employees observed over the period 1980-2004 and covering 326 NUTS3 units (districts). This rich data set is used to estimate a dynamic wage curve according to the two-step approach of Bell et al. (2002). In the first step one controls for individual heterogeneity and in the second step one allows for spatial effects of unemployment across regions on wages. We check the sensitivity of this wage elasticity to various spatial weight matrices as well as allowing for the endogeneity of unemployment. We also estimate the wage elasticity for various population groups.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University in its series Center for Policy Research Working Papers with number 126.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:max:cprwps:126

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Keywords: Seemingly unrelated regressions; panel data; spatial dependence; heterogeneity; forecasting.;

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  1. Bell, Brian & Nickell, Stephen & Quintini, Glenda, 2002. "Wage equations, wage curves and all that," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 341-360, July.
  2. Schnabel, Claus & Wagner, Joachim, 2003. "Trade Union Membership in Eastern and Western Germany: Convergence or Divergence?," IZA Discussion Papers 707, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Badi H. Baltagi & Uwe Blien & Katja Wolf, 2008. "New Evidence on the Dynamic Wage Curve for Western Germany: 1980-2004," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 103, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  4. David Card, 1995. "The Wage Curve: A Review," Working Papers 722, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  5. Schnabel, Claus & Wagner, Joachim, 2006. "The Persistent Decline in Unionization in Western and Eastern Germany, 1980-2004: What Can We Learn from a Decomposition Analysis?," IZA Discussion Papers 2388, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  6. Blanchflower, David G. & Oswald, Andrew J., 2005. "The Wage Curve Reloaded," IZA Discussion Papers 1665, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P. & Peri, Giovanni, 2007. "Rethinking the effects of immigration on wages," HWWI Research Papers 3-8, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  8. Simonetta Longhi & Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, 2006. "Spatial Heterogeneity And The Wage Curve Revisited," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 707-731.
  9. Alan Manning, 2001. "Monopsony and the Efficiency of Labour Market Interventions," CEP Discussion Papers dp0514, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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Cited by:
  1. Ulrich Zierahn, 2012. "Monocentric Cities, Endogenous Agglomeration, and Unemployment Disparities," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201238, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  2. Zheng, Xinye & Wang, Jing & Li, Xilu & Yu, Yihua, 2013. "On the supply of China's healthcare resources in a decentralized healthcare system," MPRA Paper 56030, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Victor Montuenga & Inmaculada Garcia, 2011. "The wage dynamics in Spain: evidence from individual data," ERSA conference papers ersa11p585, European Regional Science Association.

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