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American Longevity: Past, Present, and Future

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  • Samuel H. Preston
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    Abstract

    How long we live, and how long members of our families and social groups live, is extraordinarily important to us. It's not a subject of daily discussion, but it would be if we were threatened with a return to earlier conditions. Unfortunately, the subject of longevity falls between the cracks of academe and has received far less attention than it warrants. We are all aware, at least dimly, that peole are living longer than they used to. The numbers are impressive: at the turn of the century, life expectancy at birth in the United States was 48 years; it's now 76 years. Since life expectancy during the Stone Age was in the range of 20 to 30 years, it is clear that a majority of the cumulative advances have taken place in the short span of the 20th century. Without the improvements during this century, half of us would not e here: a quarter of the present U.S. population would have been born and died, and another quarter would never have been born because of the pre-reproductive death of a mother, grandmother, or great grandmother. In developing countries, nearly all of the improvements in longevity have occurred in this century. How these gains were achieved has important implications for public policy; how large future gains will be is the single most important area of uncertainty affecting the fiscal viability of our "old age welfare state." These are the two related issues that I focus on in this policy brief.

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    File URL: http://www.maxwell.syr.edu/uploadedFiles/cpr/publications/pb7.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University in its series Center for Policy Research Policy Briefs with number 7.

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    Length: 18 pages
    Date of creation: Oct 1996
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:max:cprpbr:007

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    1. Samuel H. Preston & Michael R. Haines, 1991. "Fatal Years: Child Mortality in Late Nineteenth-Century America," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number pres91-1, May.
    2. Ronald Lee & Shripad Tuljapurkar, . "Death and Taxes: How Longer Life Will Affect Social Security," Working Papers _004, University of California at Berkeley, Demography of Aging.
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    Cited by:
    1. David M. Cutler, 2000. "Walking the Tightrope on Medicare Reform," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 45-56, Spring.
    2. David Cutler & Angus Deaton & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2005. "The Determinants of Mortality," Working Papers 164, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
    3. Angus Deaton, 2004. "Health in an age of globalization," Working Papers 172, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
    4. E. Somanathan, 2010. "Effects of information on environmental quality in developing countries," Indian Statistical Institute, Planning Unit, New Delhi Discussion Papers 10-04, Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi, India.
    5. Weil, David N., 2014. "Health and Economic Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 3, pages 623-682 Elsevier.
    6. Ellen Meara, 2001. "Why is Health Related to Socioeconomic Status?," NBER Working Papers 8231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. David M. Cutler & Louise Sheiner, 1999. "Demographics and medical care spending: standard and non-standard effects," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. World Demographic and Ageing Forum & David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2006. "Global Demography, Facts, Force and Future," Journal Article y:2006:i:1, World Demographic and Ageing Forum.
    9. Joseph F. Quinn & Timothy Smeeding, 1997. "Cross-National Patterns of Labor Force Withdrawal," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 371, Boston College Department of Economics.
    10. Marc T. Law & Sukkoo Kim, 2004. "Specialization and Regulation: The Rise of Professionals and the Emergence of Occupational Licensing Regulation," NBER Working Papers 10467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Ljungberg, Jonas, 2013. "A Scientific Revolution that Made Life Longer. Schooling and the Decline of Infant Mortality in Europe," Lund Papers in Economic History 127, Department of Economic History, Lund University.
    12. David Cutler & Ellen Meara, 2001. "Changes in the Age Distribution of Mortality Over the 20th Century," NBER Working Papers 8556, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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