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Local Inflation: Reconsidering the International Comovement of Inflation

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Author Info

  • Marcel Förster

    ()
    (University of Giessen)

  • Peter Tillmann

    ()
    (University of Giessen)

Abstract

In this paper we reconsider the degree of international comovement of inflation rates. We use a dynamic hierarchical factor model that is able to decompose Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in a panel of countries into (i) a factor common to all inflation series and all countries, (ii) a factor specific to a given sub-section of the CPI, (iii) a country group-factor and (iv) a country-specific component. With its pyramidal structure, the model allows for the possibility that the global factor affects the country-group factor and other subordinated factors but not vice versa. Using quarterly data for industrialized and emerging economies from 1996 to 2011 we find that about two thirds of overall inflation volatility are due to country-specific determinants. For CPI inflation net of food and energy, the global factor and the CPI basketspecific factor account for less than 20% of inflation variation. We argue that "local inflation" rather than "global inflation" (Ciccarelli and Mojon (2010)) is a better description of the evidence. Only energy price inflation in industrial economies is dominated by common factors.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) in its series MAGKS Papers on Economics with number 201303.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in
Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201303

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Related research

Keywords: Inflation; Energy Prices; Monetary Policy; Globalization; Dynamic Hierarchical Factor Model;

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References

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  1. Auer, Raphael & Fischer, Andreas M., 2010. "The effect of low-wage import competition on U.S. inflationary pressure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 491-503, May.
  2. Marcel Förster & Markus Jorra & Peter Tillmann, 2012. "The Dynamics of International Capital Flows: Results from a Dynamic Hierarchical Factor Model," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201221, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  3. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2012. "Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: World And Country-Specific Factors," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 716-734, 08.
  4. Jongwanich, Juthathip & Park, Donghyun, 2009. "Inflation in developing Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 507-518, September.
  5. Haroon Mumtaz & Saverio Simonelli & Paolo Surico, 2011. "International Comovements, Business Cycle and Inflation: a Historical Perspective," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 176-198, January.
  6. Emanuel Moench & Serena Ng, 2011. "A hierarchical factor analysis of U.S. housing market dynamics," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(1), pages C1-C24, February.
  7. Neely, Christopher J. & Rapach, David E., 2011. "International comovements in inflation rates and country characteristics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1471-1490.
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Cited by:
  1. Kaufmann, Daniel & Lein, Sarah M., 2013. "Sticky prices or rational inattention – What can we learn from sectoral price data?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 384-394.
  2. Eickmeier, Sandra & Kühnlenz, Markus, 2013. "China's role in global inflation dynamics," Discussion Papers 07/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.

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