Daily CDS pricing in emerging markets before and during the global financial crisis
AbstractIn this paper, we study the determinants of daily spreads for emerging market sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) over the period April 2002–December 2011. Using GARCH models, we find, first, that daily CDS spreads for emerging market sovereigns are more related to global and regional risk premia than to country-specific risk factors. This result is particularly evident during the second subsample (August 2007–December 2011), where neither macroeconomic variables nor country ratings significantly explain CDS spread changes. Second, measures of US bond, equity, and CDX High Yield returns as well as emerging market credit returns turn out to be the most dominant drivers of CDS spread changes. Finally, our analysis suggests that CDS spreads are more strongly influenced by international spillover effects during periods of market stress.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) in its series MAGKS Papers on Economics with number 201139.
Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in
Credit default swaps; emerging markets; financial crisis; spillover;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-12-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-12-13 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2011-12-13 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2011-12-13 (Monetary Economics)
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