The Taylor Rule and Interest Rate Uncertainty in the U.S. 1970-2006
AbstractThis paper shows how to estimate forecast uncertainty about future short-term interest rates by combining a time-varying Taylor rule with an unobserved components model of economic fundamentals. Using this model I separate interest rate uncertainty into economically meaningful components that represent uncertainty about future economic conditions and uncertainty about future monetary policy. Results from estimating the model on U.S. data suggest important changes in uncertainty about future short-term interest rates over time and highlight the relative importance of the different elements which underlie interest rate uncertainty for the U.S.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) in its series MAGKS Papers on Economics with number 200945.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in
Monetary policy; reaction functions; state-space models; output-gap forecasts; inflation forecasts;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-11-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-11-27 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2009-11-27 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2009-11-27 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2009-11-27 (Monetary Economics)
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- Yüksel, Ebru & Metin-Ozcan, Kivilcim & Hatipoglu, Ozan, 2013.
"A survey on time-varying parameter Taylor rule: A model modified with interest rate pass-through,"
Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 122-134.
- Ebru Yuksel & Kývýlcým Metin Ozcan & Ozan Hatipoglu, 2012. "A Survey on Time Varying Parameter Taylor Rule: A Model Modified with Interest Rate Pass Through," Working Papers 2012/08, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
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