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Forecasting Russian Foreign Trade Comparative Advantages in the Context of a Potential WTO Accession

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  • Ivan Savin

    ()
    (Justus-Liebig University Gießen)

  • Peter Winker

    ()
    (Justus-Liebig University Gießen)

Abstract

This paper proposes a new approach of forecasting “prospective" comparative advantages based on relative prices differences between countries in the context of economic liberalization. An empirical analysis based on the example of Central and East European countries that have already passed the transition period from specialization mainly in natural resource- and labor-intensive goods to \high-tech" goods confirms a significant influence of our “prospective" advantages on comparative advantages dynamics. Using this method we identify a set of industries in Russia that seem to be most promising for formation of comparative advantages in the context of its economic liberalization and joining the WTO agreements. These industries include high and medium technological industries like machinery building, pharmaceutical products, railway transport, electronic and medical equipment.

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File URL: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/makro/forschung/magkspapers/14-2009_savin.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) in its series MAGKS Papers on Economics with number 200914.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in
Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:200914

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Keywords: comparative advantage; competitive advantage; economy in transition; Balassa index; Lafay index.;

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References

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  1. Andrea Zaghini, 2005. "Evolution of trade patterns in the new EU member states," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(4), pages 629-658, October.
  2. Fabio Montobbio, 2003. "Sectoral patterns of technological activity and export market share dynamics," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(4), pages 523-545, July.
  3. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley & Samuelson, Paul A, 1977. "Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 823-39, December.
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  8. Eckhard Siggel, 2006. "International Competitiveness and Comparative Advantage: A Survey and a Proposal for Measurement," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 137-159, June.
  9. Daniela Marconi & Valeria Rolli, 2007. "Comparative advantage patterns and domestic determinants in emerging countries: an analysis with a focus on technology," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 638, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  10. Robert Stehrer & Julia Wörz, 2003. "Technological convergence and trade patterns," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 191-219, June.
  11. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464, November.
  12. Ashok Deo Bardhan & Cynthia Kroll, 2006. "Competitiveness and an Emerging Sector: The Russian Software Industry and its Global Linkages," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 69-95.
  13. Shepotylo, Oleksandr & Tarr, David, 2007. "The structure of import tariffs in the Russian Federation : 2001-05," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4265, The World Bank.
  14. Landesmann, Michael A. & Stehrer, Robert, 2001. "Convergence patterns and switchovers in comparative advantage," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 399-423, December.
  15. Antonis Adam & James McHugh & Theodora Kosma, 2003. "Trade Liberalization Strategies: What Could South Eastern Europe Learn From CEFTA and BFTA?," IMF Working Papers 03/239, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Ivan Savin & Peter Winker, 2010. "Heuristic Optimization Methods for Dynamic Panel Data Model Selection. Application on the Russian Innovative Performance," Working Papers 027, COMISEF.
  2. Ishchukova, N. & Smutka, L., 2013. "Comparative Advantage: Products Mapping of the Russian Agricultural Exports," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 5(3), September.

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