Forecasting Russian Foreign Trade Comparative Advantages in the Context of a Potential WTO Accession
AbstractThis paper proposes a new approach of forecasting “prospective" comparative advantages based on relative prices differences between countries in the context of economic liberalization. An empirical analysis based on the example of Central and East European countries that have already passed the transition period from specialization mainly in natural resource- and labor-intensive goods to \high-tech" goods confirms a significant influence of our “prospective" advantages on comparative advantages dynamics. Using this method we identify a set of industries in Russia that seem to be most promising for formation of comparative advantages in the context of its economic liberalization and joining the WTO agreements. These industries include high and medium technological industries like machinery building, pharmaceutical products, railway transport, electronic and medical equipment.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) in its series MAGKS Papers on Economics with number 200914.
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in
comparative advantage; competitive advantage; economy in transition; Balassa index; Lafay index.;
Other versions of this item:
- Ivan Savin & Peter Winker, 2009. "Forecasting Russian Foreign Trade Comparative Advantages in the Context of a Potential WTO Accession," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 1(2), pages 111-138, November.
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-03-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-CIS-2009-03-22 (Confederation of Independent States)
- NEP-CSE-2009-03-22 (Economics of Strategic Management)
- NEP-TRA-2009-03-22 (Transition Economics)
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