Forecasting Russian Foreign Trade Comparative Advantages in the Context of a Potential WTO Accession

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Forecasting Russian Foreign Trade Comparative Advantages in the Context of a Potential WTO Accession

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Ivan Savin () (Department of Economics, Justus-Liebig University Gießen)
Peter Winker () (Department of Economics, Justus-Liebig University Gießen)

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Abstract

This paper proposes a new approach of forecasting “prospective" comparative advantages based on relative prices differences between countries in the context of economic liberalization. An empirical analysis based on the example of Central and East European countries that have already passed the transition period from specialization mainly in natural resource- and labor-intensive goods to \high-tech" goods confirms a significant influence of our “prospective" advantages on comparative advantages dynamics. Using this method we identify a set of industries in Russia that seem to be most promising for formation of comparative advantages in the context of its economic liberalization and joining the WTO agreements. These industries include high and medium technological industries like machinery building, pharmaceutical products, railway transport, electronic and medical equipment.

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Paper provided by Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) in its series MAGKS Papers on Economics with number 200914.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in
Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:200914

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2009-03-22 (All new papers)
NEP-CIS-2009-03-22 (Confederation of Independent States)
NEP-CSE-2009-03-22 (Economics of Strategic Management)
NEP-TRA-2009-03-22 (Transition Economics)

References listed on IDEAS
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Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Paul Brenton & Natalia Tourdyeva & John Whalley, 1997. "The potential trade effects of an FTA between the EU and Russia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 205-225, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Fabio Montobbio, 2003. "Sectoral patterns of technological activity and export market share dynamics," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(4), pages 523-545, July.
Shepotylo, Oleksandr & Tarr, David, 2007. "The structure of import tariffs in the Russian Federation : 2001-05," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4265, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
Eckhard Siggel, 2006. "International Competitiveness and Comparative Advantage: A Survey and a Proposal for Measurement," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 137-159, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Robert Stehrer & Julia Wörz, 2003. "Technological convergence and trade patterns," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 191-219, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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