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The Cobweb, Borrowing and Financial Crises

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  • P Commendatore
  • M Currie

Abstract

Studies of non-linear cobweb models have failed to address a fundamental issue: whether the complex dynamical behavior displayed by such models is consistent with the survival of producers. This paper shows that where borrowing is unconstrained, as is implicitly assumed in standard cobweb models, borrowing results in financial crises. Incorporating constraints on borrowing is needed to salvage cobweb models. Industry performance (in terms both of profitability and of the incidence of bankruptcies) is highly sensitive to the nature of such credit restrictions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics, The University of Manchester in its series The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series with number 0503.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:man:sespap:0503

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Web page: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/subjects/economics/
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  1. Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "On the consistency of backward-looking expectations: The case of the cobweb," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 333-362, January.
  2. Hommes, Cars H., 1994. "Dynamics of the cobweb model with adaptive expectations and nonlinear supply and demand," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 315-335, August.
  3. Chiarella, Carl, 1988. "The cobweb model: Its instability and the onset of chaos," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 377-384, October.
  4. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 1995. "Credit Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Onozaki, Tamotsu & Sieg, Gernot & Yokoo, Masanori, 2000. "Complex dynamics in a cobweb model with adaptive production adjustment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 101-115, February.
  6. Gallas, Jason A. C. & Nusse, Helena E., 1996. "Periodicity versus chaos in the dynamics of cobweb models," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 447-464, May.
  7. Huang, Weihong, 1995. "Caution implies profit," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 257-277, July.
  8. Walker, David A., 1997. "A behavioral model of bank asset management," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 413-431, March.
  9. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  10. Hommes, Cars H., 1991. "Adaptive learning and roads to chaos : The case of the cobweb," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 127-132, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Colucci, Domenico & Valori, Vincenzo, 2011. "Adaptive expectations and cobweb phenomena: Does heterogeneity matter?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1307-1321, August.
  2. Domenico Colucci & Vincenzo Valori, 2011. "Can Endogenous Participation Explain Price Volatility? Evidence from an Agent-Based Cobweb Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 38(3), pages 425-437, October.

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