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Indicators of Electoral Victory

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Author Info

  • Pablo Amoros

    ()
    (Department of Economic Theory, Universidad de Málaga)

  • M. Socorro Puy

    ()
    (Department of Economic Theory, Universidad de Málaga)

Abstract

We study a two-party contest where candidates strategically allocate their campaign resources between two salient issues. We analyze to what extent the following indicators of a party's success predict the electoral victory: (1) the pre-campaign advantage, (2) the advantage on every salient issue, and (3) the advantage on campaign resources. We show that the electoral victory is guaranteed only when a party has a "sufficiently large" advantage on every salient issue. Otherwise no combination of these indicators ensures the electoral victory.

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File URL: http://webdeptos.uma.es/THEconomica/malagawpseries/Papers/METCwp2008-8.pdf
File Function: First version, 2008
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universidad de Málaga, Department of Economic Theory, Málaga Economic Theory Research Center in its series Working Papers with number 2008-8.

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Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mal:wpaper:2008-8

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Keywords: Election campaign; salient issues; majority voting;

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References

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  1. AMOROS, Pablo & PUY, M. Socorro, 2007. "Dialogue or issue divergence in the political campaign?," CORE Discussion Papers 2007084, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  2. Laffond, G. & Laine, J., 2006. "Single-switch preferences and the Ostrogorski paradox," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 49-66, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Josep Colomer & Humberto Llavador, 2012. "An agenda-setting model of electoral competition," SERIEs, Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 73-93, March.

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