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Rural Migration, Weather and Agriculture: Evidence from Indian Census Data

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  • Brinda Viswanathan

    ()
    (Madras School of Economics)

  • K. S. Kavi Kumar

    ()
    (Madras School of Economics)

Abstract

This study explores the three way linkage between weather variability, agricultural performance and internal migration in India at state and district level using Indian Census data. We base all the analyses on a simultaneous equation model for panel data. The elasticity of inter-state out-migration rate with respect to the per capita net state domestic product is approximately (-)0.75. The crop-wise analysis, on the other hand, shows that the (negative) elasticities are higher and more substantial for rice (-1.85) than for wheat (-0.90). The district-level analysis shows larger magnitudes of estimated change in in-migration rates to relative changes in crop yields. The results suggest that the impact of yield change on the in-migration rate depends on both the inter-play between inter- and intra-district in-migration rates as well as the crop under consideration. The study findings could thus have significant policy relevance, especially in the context of global climate change and the prospect of migration serving as a potential adaptation strategy for people adversely affected by the impact of weather variability on crop yield.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India in its series Working Papers with number 2013-080.

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Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mad:wpaper:2013-080

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Related research

Keywords: Weather Variability; Agricultural Impacts; Internal Migration; Developing Countries; Climate Change; Adaptation;

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  1. Andrew Dillon & Valerie Mueller & Sheu Salau, 2011. "Migratory Responses to Agricultural Risk in Northern Nigeria," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1048-1061.
  2. Deshingkar, Priya & Akter, Shaheen, 2009. "Migration and Human Development in India," MPRA Paper 19193, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Sivaramakrishnan, & Kundu, & Singh,, 2007. "Handbook of Urbanization in India," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780195690491.
  4. Marchiori, Luca & Maystadt, Jean-François & Schumacher, Ingmar, 2012. "The impact of weather anomalies on migration in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 355-374.
  5. William Joe & Priyajit Samaiyar & U.S. Mishra, 2009. "Migration and urban poverty in India some preliminary observations," Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum Working Papers 414, Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum, India.
  6. Petia Topalova, 2010. "Factor Immobility and Regional Impacts of Trade Liberalization Evidence on Poverty from India," IMF Working Papers 10/218, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2013. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13045, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  8. Harris, John R & Todaro, Michael P, 1970. "Migration, Unemployment & Development: A Two-Sector Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 126-42, March.
  9. Seema Jayachandran, 2006. "Selling Labor Low: Wage Responses to Productivity Shocks in Developing Countries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 538-575, June.
  10. Mitra, Arup & Murayama, Mayumi, 2008. "Rural to Urban Migration: A District Level Analysis for India," IDE Discussion Papers 137, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  11. Shuaizhang Feng & Michael Oppenheimer & Wolfram Schlenker, 2012. "Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Internal Migration in the United States," NBER Working Papers 17734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Stark, Oded, 1984. "Rural-to-Urban Migration in LDCs: A Relative Deprivation Approach," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(3), pages 475-86, April.
  13. Udaya S. Mishra & William Joe & Priyajit Samaiyar, 2009. "Migration and Urban Poverty in India Some Preliminary Observations," Working Papers id:2287, eSocialSciences.
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