Hedgers, Investors and Futures Return Volatility: the Case of NYMEX Crude Oil
AbstractWe present a new model to evaluate the volatility of futures returns. The model is a combination of Dynamic Conditional Correlation and an augmented EGARCH, which allows us to evaluate the differential effects of the trading activity of two classes of optimizing traders. We apply the model to the NYMEX crude oil futures contract, and we find that the rebalancing activity of hedgers has a significant and positive effect on returns volatility. However, we also find that the rebalancing activity attributable to crude oil futures for non-hedging investors has no significant effect.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Macquarie University, Department of Economics in its series Research Papers with number 0607.
Length: 26 pages.
Date of creation: Oct 2006
Date of revision:
portfolio choice; WTI oil volatility; optimal hedge ratio; dynamic conditional correlation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-01-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2007-01-14 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-FMK-2007-01-14 (Financial Markets)
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