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Assessing the Impact of the Global Financial and Economic Crisis in Developing Countries: the Case of Uruguay

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  • Carmen Estrades
  • Cecilia Llambi

Abstract

This paper uses a static computable general equilibrium model (CGE) linked to a microsimulation model to analyze how the global crisis and some adopted policy responses may have affected the Uruguayan economy. The focus is on the trade channel and foreign capital flows, since they are the most important mechanisms through which the global crisis affected the Uruguayan economy. The crisis had a strong impact on exports and fixed investment. Poorest households would be the most affected, as they face a stronger reduction in real wages and a rise in unemployment. We find a negative impact on extreme poverty, but not on moderate poverty, as households near the poverty line would benefit from the fall in some consumer prices. A policy based in increasing current public consumption does moderately counteract some negative impacts of the crisis, but benefits mainly skilled workers, and does not act directly towards the most affected.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by PEP-MPIA in its series Working Papers MPIA with number 2011-16.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:lvl:mpiacr:2011-16

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Keywords: Global economic crisis; trade shock; fiscal response; Uruguay; unemployment;

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  1. Marisa Bucheli & Cecilia González, 2007. "An estimation of the wage curve for Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 1107, Department of Economics - dECON.
  2. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "The Wage Curve," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026202375x, December.
  3. Carneiro, Francisco Galrao & Arbache, Jorge Saba, 2003. "The Impacts of Trade on the Brazilian Labor Market: A CGE Model Approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 1581-1595, September.
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