Stock Market Overreaction to Management Earnings Forecasts
AbstractI hypothesize that the stock market overreacts to management earnings forecasts. I find that negative management forecast surprises lead to a -5.9% abnormal return around the forecast and a 1.9% correction in the 2-month period after earnings are announced. Positive surprises work in the opposite direction, with a 1.9% abnormal return and a -1.7% correction. The level of the stock market overreaction varies depending on forecast and firm characteristics, but the marginal impact remains the same: a 1% change in the stock market reaction around the forecast is associated with a 0.4% correction. These findings are consistent with the idea that investors overweight their recent experience in situation of increased uncertainty, leading to stock market overreaction.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CIRPEE in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 1319.
Date of creation: 2014
Date of revision:
Overreaction; information uncertainty; market efficiency; management forecasts; analyst forecasts;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
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