Currency Total Return Swaps: Valuation and Risk Factor Analysis
AbstractCurrency total return swaps (CTRS) are hybrid derivatives instruments that allow to simultaneously hedge against credit and currency risks. We develop a structural credit risk model to evaluate CTRS premia. Empirical test on a sample of 23,005 price observations from 59 underlying issuers yields an average percentage error of around 10%. This indicates that, beyond interest rate risk, firm-specific factors are major drivers of the variations in the valuation of these instruments. Regression analysis of residuals shows that exchange rate determinants account for up to 40% of model pricing errors – indicating that a currency risk premium affects the CTRS price significantly but only marginally, which confirms the prevalence of credit risk in the pricing of CTRS.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CIRPEE in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 1128.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Credit derivative; credit risk; currency risk;
Other versions of this item:
- Romain Cuchet & Pascal Fran�Ois & Georges H�Bner, 2013. "Currency total return swaps: valuation and risk factor analysis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 1135-1148, February.
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
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