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Optimal Policy Restrictions on Observable Outcomes

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  • Federico Ravenna

Abstract

We study the restrictions implied by optimal policy DSGE models for the volatility of observable endogenous variables. Our approach uses a parametric family of singular models to discriminate which volatility sample outcomes have zero probability of being generated by an optimal policy. Thus the set of volatility outcomes generated by the model is not of measure zero even if there are no random deviations from optimal policymaking. This methodology is applied to a new Keynesian business cycle model widely used in the optimal monetary policy literature, and its implications for the assessment of US monetary policy performance over the 1984-2005 period are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico Ravenna, 2010. "Optimal Policy Restrictions on Observable Outcomes," Cahiers de recherche 1027, CIRPEE.
    • Handle: RePEc:lvl:lacicr:1027
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    File URL: http://www.cirpee.org/fileadmin/documents/Cahiers_2010/CIRPEE10-27.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lai, Hung-pin, 2008. "Maximum likelihood estimation of singular systems of equations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 51-54, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Olson & Walter Enders, 2012. "A Historical Analysis of the Taylor Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1285-1299, October.

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    1. Ravenna Federico, 2016. "Testing monetary policy optimality using volatility outcomes: a novel approach," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 597-621, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal monetary policy; business cycle; DSGE model; policy performance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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