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Scaling Models for the Severity and Frequency of External Operational Loss Data

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Author Info
Hela Dahen
Georges Dionne

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Abstract

According to Basel II criteria, the use of external data is absolutely indispensable to the implementation of an advanced method for calculating operational capital. This article investigates how the severity and frequencies of external losses are scaled for integration with internal data. We set up an initial model designed to explain the loss severity. This model takes into account firm size, location, and business lines as well as risk types. It also shows how to calculate the internal loss equivalent to an external loss, which might occur in a given bank. OLS estimation results show that the above variables have significant power in explaining the loss amount. They are used to develop a normalization formula. A second model based on external data is developed to scale the frequency of losses over a given period. Two regression models are analyzed: the truncated Poisson model and the truncated negative binomial model. Variables estimating the size and geographical distribution of the banks' activities have been introduced as explanatory variables. The results show that the negative binomial distribution outperforms the Poisson distribution. The scaling is done by calculating the parameters of the selected distribution based on the estimated coefficients and the variables related to a given bank. Frequency of losses of more than $1 million are generated on a specific horizon.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CIRPEE in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 0702.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:lvl:lacicr:0702

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Related research
Keywords: Operational risk in banks; scaling; severity distribution; frequency distribution; truncated count data regression models;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Dionne, G. & Vanasse, C., 1988. "A Generalization of Automobile Insurance Rating Models: the Negative Binomial Distribution with a Regression Component," Cahiers de recherche 8833, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Dionne, Georges & Gagne, Robert & Gagnon, Francois & Vanasse, Charles, 1997. "Debt, moral hazard and airline safety An empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 379-402, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Applications to Poisson Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 701-20, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Boyer, M. & Dionee, G. & Vanasse, C., 1990. "Econometric Models Of Accident Distributions," Cahiers de recherche 9001, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
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  5. Cameron, A Colin & Trivedi, Pravin K, 1986. "Econometric Models Based on Count Data: Comparisons and Applications of Some Estimators and Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 29-53, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Gurmu, Shiferaw & Trivedi, Pravin K., 1992. "Overdispersion tests for truncated Poisson regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 347-370. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Cameron, A C & P. K. Trivedi & Frank Milne & J. Piggott, 1988. "A Microeconometric Model of the Demand for Health Care and Health Insurance in Australia," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(1), pages 85-106, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hausman, Jerry & Hall, Bronwyn H & Griliches, Zvi, 1984. "Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R&D Relationship," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 909-38, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Dionne, G & Vanasse, C, 1992. "Automobile Insurance Ratemaking in the Presence of Asymmetrical Information," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 149-65, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Gurmu, Shiferaw, 1991. "Tests for Detecting Overdispersion in the Positive Poisson Regression Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(2), pages 215-22, April.
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