A Spatial-Dependence Continuous-Time Model for Regional Unemployment in Germany
AbstractThis paper analyzes patterns of regional labour market development in Germany over the period 2000-2003 by means of a spatial-dependence continuous-time model. (Spatial) panel data are routinely modelled in discrete time. However, there are compelling arguments for continuous time modelling of (spatial) panel data. Particularly, most social processes evolve in continuous time such that analysis in discrete time is an oversimplification, gives a distorted representation of reality and leads to misinterpretation of estimation results. The most compelling reason for continuous time modelling is that, in contrast to discrete time modelling, it allows for adequate modelling of dynamic adjustment processes (see, for example, Special Issue 62:1, 2008, of Statistica Neerlandica). We introduce spatial dependence in a continuous time modelling framework and apply the unified framework to regional labour market development in Germany. The empirical results show substantial autoregressive effects for unemployment and population development, as well as a negative effect of unemployment development on population development. The reverse effect is not significant. Neither are the effects of the development of regional average wages and of the manufacturing sector on the development of unemployment and population.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by USI Università della Svizzera italiana in its series Quaderni della facoltà di Scienze economiche dell'Università di Lugano with number 0811.
Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2008
Date of revision:
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Web page: https://www.bul.sbu.usi.ch
Continuous time modelling; structural equation modelling; spatial dependence; panel data; disattenuation; measurement errors; Germany;
Other versions of this item:
- Johan H.L. Oud & Henk Folmer & Roberto Patuelli & Peter Nijkamp, 2008. "Continuous-Time Modelling with Spatial Dependence," Working Paper Series 39-08, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Oct 2010.
- Johan H.L. Oud & Henk Folmer & Roberto Patuelli & Peter Nijkamp, 2011. "Continuous-Time Modelling with Spatial Dependence," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-117/3, Tinbergen Institute.
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- O18 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
- R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-01-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-GEO-2009-01-03 (Economic Geography)
- NEP-LAB-2009-01-03 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-LTV-2009-01-03 (Unemployment, Inequality & Poverty)
- NEP-MAC-2009-01-03 (Macroeconomics)
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- Danny Czamanski & Henk Folmer, 2011. "Introduction: some new methods in regional science," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 493-497, December.
- R. Patuelli & N. Schanne & D. A. Griffith & P. Nijkamp, 2011.
"Persistence of Regional Unemployment: Application of a Spatial Filtering Approach to Local Labour Markets in Germany,"
wp743, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
- Roberto Patuelli & Norbert Schanne & Daniel A. Griffith & Peter Nijkamp, 2012. "Persistence Of Regional Unemployment: Application Of A Spatial Filtering Approach To Local Labor Markets In Germany," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 300-323, 05.
- Patuelli, Roberto & Schanne, Norbert & Griffith, Daniel A. & Nijkamp, Peter, 2011. "Persistence of regional unemployment : Application of a spatial filtering approach to local labour markets in Germany," IAB Discussion Paper 201103, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
- Roberto Patuelli & Norbert Schanne & Daniel A. Griffith & Peter Nijkamp, 2009. "Persistence of Regional Unemployment: Application of a Spatial Filtering Approach to Local Labour Markets in Germany," Working Paper Series 49_09, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Nov 2011.
- Patuelli, R. & Schanne, N. & Griffith, D.A., 2010. "Persistent disparities in regional unemployment: Application of a spatial filtering approach to local labour markets in Germany," Serie Research Memoranda 0001, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
- Roberto Patuelli & Norbert Schanne & Daniel A. Griffith & Peter Nijkamp, 2010. "Persistent Disparities in Regional Unemployment: Application of a Spatial Filtering Approach to Local Labour Markets in Germany," Quaderni della facoltÃ di Scienze economiche dell'UniversitÃ di Lugano 1001, USI Università della Svizzera italiana.
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