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Deep uncertainty in long-term hurricane risk: scenario generation and implications for future climate experiments

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  • Nicola Ranger
  • Falk Niehörster
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    Abstract

    Current projections of long-term trends in Atlantic hurricane activity due to climate change are deeply uncertain, both in magnitude and sign. This creates challenges for adaptation planning in exposed coastal communities. We present a framework to support the interpretation of current long-term tropical cyclone projections, which accommodates the nature of the uncertainty and aims to facilitate robust decision making using the information that is available today. The framework is populated with projections taken from the recent literature to develop a set of scenarios of long-term hurricane hazard. Hazard scenarios are then used to generate risk scenarios for Florida using a coupled climate-catastrophe modeling approach. The scenarios represent a broad range of plausible futures; from wind-related hurricane losses in Florida halving by the end of the century to more than a four-fold increase due to climate change alone. We suggest that it is not possible, based on current evidence, to meaningfully quantify the relative confidence of each scenario. The analyses also suggest that natural variability is likely to be the dominant driver of the level and volatility of wind-related risk over the coming decade; however, under the highest scenario, the superposition of this natural variability and anthropogenic climate change could mean notably increased levels of risk within the decade. Finally, we present a series of analyses to better understand the relative adequacy of the different models that underpin the scenarios and draw conclusions for the design of future climate science and modeling experiments to be most informative for adaptation.

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    File URL: http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/publications/WorkingPapers/Papers/50-59/wp51_uncertainty-hurricane-risk-climate-experiments.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment in its series Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Papers with number 51.

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    Date of creation: Jul 2011
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    Handle: RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp51

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    1. Eric Neumayer & Fabian Barthel, 2010. "Normalizing economic loss from natural disasters: a global analysis," Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Papers 31, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    2. Gilboa, Itzhak & Postlewaite, Andrew & Schmeidler, David, 2009. "Is It Always Rational To Satisfy Savage'S Axioms?," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(03), pages 285-296, November.
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