Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Probabilistic regional and seasonal predictions of twenty-first century temperature and precipitation

Contents:

Author Info

  • David Stainforth
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    The rationale for international agreements on climate change mitigation comes from the global scope of impacts irrespective of the location of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. By contrast one of the motivations for national commitments to such agreements, and for national adaptation planning, is concern about national scale impacts. Climate predictions on regional scales are therefore highly sought after by policy and decision makers, yet robust, relevant predictions on these scales raise practical and philosophical challenges for climate science. Existing methods underestimate uncertainty through limited exploration of model error and ad hoc choices regarding the relationship between model diversity and real world probabilities. Here a new method is presented for extracting model based probabilistic information on regional and seasonal scales, utilising the world’s largest climate ensemble exploring the consequences of model uncertainty. For the first time ensemble filtering is implemented to counter problems of in-sample bias in future analyses. A probabilistic interpretation is presented of the regional scale consequences of targets to halve global GHG emissions by 2050 using a scenario with an estimated 32% probability of exceeding 2oC global warming (relative to pre-industrial levels). Meeting such a target leads to the model’s winter climate for Northern Europe being between 0.5 and 5.9oC warmer and -5 and 34% wetter in the 2090s. A business-as-usual scenario provides ranges of 6.8 to 14.5oC and 22 to 71%. Higher precipitation increases are found for North Asia. That these ranges are large illustrates the need for adaptation strategies which minimise vulnerability rather than optimise for the future10. The method is potentially useful for making probabilistic statements about future seasonal mean model temperatures in many of the 22 predominantly land regions studied, as well as for model precipitation in a small number of high latitude regions.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/publications/WorkingPapers/Papers/WPapers%2020%20-%2029/WP23_21st-century-temperature.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment in its series Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Papers with number 23.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: Aug 2010
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp23

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE
    Phone: +44 (020) 7405 7686
    Web page: http://www.lse.ac.uk/grantham.
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (The GRI Administration).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.