Zerlegung ökonomischer Zeitreihen: Ein deterministischer und stochastischer Ansatz
AbstractThe paper discusses a new seasonality hypothesis which is one part of a weighted regression approach for the decomposition of a time series into a trend, a seasonal component and an irregular component. It is shown that there exists a regression formulation leading, as in the descriptive approach in Schlicht (1981), to a unique decomposition withouit having recourse to initial values. It turns out that both solutions to the descriptive regression are conditional expected values in the stochastic specification. The decomposition as well as predciction are illustrated by examples
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Munich, Department of Economics in its series Munich Reprints in Economics with number 3344.
Date of creation: 1984
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv 2 68(1984): pp. 161-175
seasonal adjustment; weighted regression; seasonality; smoothing; spline; descriptive decomposition;
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- Schlicht, Ekkehart & Pauly, Ralf, 1983.
"Descriptive Seasonal Adjustment by Minimizing Perturbations,"
Munich Reprints in Economics
3346, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Schlicht, Ekkehart & Pauly, Ralf, 1982. "Descriptive Seasonal Adjustment by Minimizing Perturbations," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 39247, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute of Economics (VWL).
- Nicolas Pinkwart, 2011. "Zur Stabilität von Saisonbereinigungsverfahren: Eine Echtzeitdaten-Analyse am Beispiel BV4.1 und X-12-ARIMA," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 125-144, August.
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