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Icebergs versus Tariffs: A Quantitative Perspective on the Gains from Trade

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  • Jung, Benjamin
  • Felbermayr, Gabriel
  • Larch, Mario

Abstract

We derive a simple equation for the welfare gains from trade when tariffs are liberalized or iceberg trade costs fall. Covering various one-sector trade models that may or may not feature extensive margins and imperfect competition, we generalize the analysis of Arkolakis, Costinot and Rodriguez-Clare (2012) to encompass revenue-generating import tariffs. Our formula permits easy quantification based on countries’ observed degrees of openness, their tariff revenues, and gravity elasticities. We show analytically that an analysis based on iceberg costs necessarily underestimates the welfare gains from trade relative to autarky. Our quantitative exercise for 41 countries suggests that the bias can be numerically significant. For countries with relatively high status quo tariffs, our formula predicts 30-60\% larger gains from trade than the icebergs only approach.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Munich, Department of Economics in its series Munich Reprints in Economics with number 19542.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Publication status: Published in Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2013: Wettbewerbspolitik und Regulierung in einer globalen Wirtschaftsordnung - Session: Trade and Heterogeneity E08-V3 (2013)
Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenar:19542

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  1. Matthieu Crozet & Pamina Koenig, 2007. "Structural gravity equations with intensive and extensive margins," EconomiX Working Papers 2007-36, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  2. Edward J. Balistreri & Russell H. Hillberry & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2008. "Structural Estimation and Solution of International Trade Models with Heterogeneous Firms," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 08/89, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
  3. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
  4. Matthew T Cole, 2011. "Distorted Trade Barriers," Working Papers 201105, School Of Economics, University College Dublin.
  5. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Jung, Benjamin & Larch, Mario, 2013. "Optimal tariffs, retaliation, and the welfare loss from tariff wars in the Melitz model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 13-25.
  6. Philipp J.H. Schröder & Allan Sørensen, 2011. "A welfare ranking of multilateral reductions in real and tariff trade barriers when firms are heterogenous," Economics Working Papers 2011-18, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  7. Fernando Alvarez & Robert E. Lucas, 2005. "General Equilibrium Analysis of the Eaton-Kortum Model of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 11764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ralph Ossa, 2012. "Why Trade Matters After All," NBER Working Papers 18113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Edward J. Balistreri & James R. Markusen, 2007. "Sub-national Differentiation and the Role of the Firm in Optimal International Pricing," NBER Working Papers 13130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Neary, J. Peter, 1994. "Cost asymmetries in international subsidy games: Should governments help winners or losers?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3-4), pages 197-218, November.
  11. Costas Arkolakis & Svetlana Demidova & Peter J. Klenow & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 2008. "Endogenous Variety and the Gains from Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 444-50, May.
  12. Demidova, Svetlana & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2009. "Trade policy under firm-level heterogeneity in a small economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 100-112, June.
  13. Chris Edmond & Virgiliu Midrigan & Daniel Yi Xu, 2012. "Competition, Markups, and the Gains from International Trade," NBER Working Papers 18041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Costas Arkolakis & Arnaud Costinot & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 2009. "New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?," NBER Working Papers 15628, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Chris Edmond, Virgiliu Midrigan, Daniel Yi Xu,, 2012. "Competition, Markups, and the Gains from," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1145, The University of Melbourne.
  16. Arnaud Costinot & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 2013. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," NBER Working Papers 18896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Larch, Mario, 2013. "The transatlantic trade and investment partnership (TTIP): Potentials, problems and perspectives," Munich Reprints in Economics 20613, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  2. Costinot, Arnaud & Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, 2013. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 9398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Povilas Lastauskas, 2013. "Europe's Revolving Doors: Import Competition and Endogenous Firm Entry Institutions," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 464, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

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