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Detecting Hidden Violence: The Spatial Distribution of Excess Mortality in Rwanda

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  • Marijke verpoorten

Abstract

Rwanda experienced several forms of internal violence, including civil war,genocide, reprisal killings and (counter-)insurgency. While these events all occurred in 1990-1998, their geographic location within Rwanda differred, with the genocide especially severe in the South of the country, the civil war and reprisal killings mostly taking place in the North and East, and the (counter-)insurgency concentrated in the Northwest. In order to assess the relative impact of the different forms of violence, this article derives a detailed spatial pattern of excess mortality from the population census. In line with previous evidence on the death toll of armed conflict in Rwanda, we find significant high-high excess mortality clusters in the southern province of Butare, in and around Kigali City, and in the eastern province Kibungo. Furthermore, we present the first quantitative evidence to date of high excess mortality in the northwestern porvince Gisenyi, indicating that the 1995-1998 (counter-)insurgency inflicted a much higher death toll on the population than presently acknowledged by the Rwandan government, the UN and large western donors.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven in its series LICOS Discussion Papers with number 25410.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:lic:licosd:25410

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Keywords: armed conflict; genocide; excess mortality; Rwanda;

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References

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  1. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Income distribution, political instability, and investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1203-1228, June.
  2. Andre, Catherine & Platteau, Jean-Philippe, 1998. "Land relations under unbearable stress: Rwanda caught in the Malthusian trap," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 1-47, January.
  3. Li, Baibing & Martin, Elaine B. & Morris, A. Julian, 2002. "On principal component analysis in L1," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 471-474, September.
  4. Perotti, Roberto & Alesina, Alberto, 1996. "Income Distribution, Political Instability, and Investment," Scholarly Articles 4553018, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  5. Marijke Verpoorten, 2005. "The Death Toll of the Rwandan Genocide: A Detailed Analysis for Gikongoro Province," Population (english edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 60(4), pages 331-367.
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Cited by:
  1. Marijke Verpoorten, 2011. "Measure for Measure: How Well Do We Measure Micro-Level Conflict Intensity?," LICOS Discussion Papers 27511, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
  2. Pieter Serneels & Marijke Verpoorten, 2012. "The impact of armed conflict on economic performance: Evidence from Rwanda," CSAE Working Paper Series 2012-10, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  3. Giacomo De Luca & Marijke Verpoorten, 2011. "From Vice to Virtue? Civil War and Social Capital in Uganda," HiCN Working Papers 111, Households in Conflict Network.
  4. Tilman Brück & Patricia Justino & Philip Verwimp & Andrew Tedesco, 2013. "Measuring Conflict Exposure in Micro-Level Surveys," HiCN Working Papers 153, Households in Conflict Network.
  5. Verpoorten Marijke, 2012. "The Intensity of the Rwandan Genocide: Measures from the Gacaca Records," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26, April.
  6. Andrea Guariso & Marijke Verpoorten, 2014. "Armed conflict and schooling in Rwanda: Digging deeper," HiCN Working Papers 166, Households in Conflict Network.

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