Foreign and Public Deficits in Greece: In Search of Causality
AbstractThe paper discusses the trajectories of the Greek public deficit and sovereign debt over the last three decades and its connection to the political and economic environment of the same period. We pay special attention to the causality between the public and the foreign deficit. We argue that from 1980 to 1995 causality ran from the public deficit to the foreign deficit, but that due to the European monetary unification process and the adoption of the common currency, causality has reversed since. This hypothesis is tested and verified econometrically using both Granger Causality and Cointegration analyses.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Levy Economics Institute, The in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number wp_771.
Date of creation: Aug 2013
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Greece; crisis; public debt; twin deficits; imbalances;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-08-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2013-08-10 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2013-08-10 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PKE-2013-08-10 (Post Keynesian Economics)
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