Causes of Financial Instability: Don’t Forget Finance
AbstractGiven the economy's complex behavior and sudden transitions as evidenced in the 2007–08 crisis, agent-based models are widely considered a promising alternative to current macroeconomic practice dominated by DSGE models. Their failure is commonly interpreted as a failure to incorporate heterogeneous interacting agents. This paper explains that complex behavior and sudden transitions also arise from the economy's financial structure as reflected in its balance sheets, not just from heterogeneous interacting agents. It introduces "flow-of-funds" and "accounting" models, which were preeminent in successful anticipations of the recent crisis. In illustration, a simple balance-sheet model of the economy is developed to demonstrate that nonlinear behavior and sudden transition may arise from the economy’s balance-sheet structure, even without any microfoundations. The paper concludes by discussing one recent example of combining flow-of-funds and agent-based models. This appears a promising avenue for future research.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Levy Economics Institute, The in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number wp_665.
Date of creation: Apr 2011
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Credit Crisis; Finance; Complex Systems; DSGE; Agent-based Models; Stock-flow Consistent Models;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- B52 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Institutional; Evolutionary
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-04-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-HME-2011-04-09 (Heterodox Microeconomics)
- NEP-PKE-2011-04-09 (Post Keynesian Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Claudio H. Dos Santos & Gennaro Zezza, 2008. "A Simplified, 'Benchmark', Stock-Flow Consistent Post-Keynesian Growth Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 441-478, 07.
- Till van Treeck, 2009.
"A synthetic, stock--flow consistent macroeconomic model of 'financialisation',"
Cambridge Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 33(3), pages 467-493, May.
- Till van Treeck, 2007. "A Synthetic, Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Model of Financialisation," IMK Working Paper 06-2007, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
- Eugenio Caverzasi & Antoine Godin, 2013. "Stock-flow Consistent Modeling through the Ages," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_745, Levy Economics Institute, The.
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