Crowding In or Crowding Out? A Classical-Harrodian Perspective
AbstractThis paper investigates the effects of budget deficits within a classical-Harrodian framework in a closed economy. In this framework, growth and cycles are endogenous, underutilized capacity is a recurrent phenomenon, capacity utilization fluctuates around the normal level in the long run, and unemployment is persistent. Give the normal rate of profit, the key determinant of growth is the social savings rate. Along the warranted path when growth is balanced and is financed via retained earnings and equity, the social savings rate can be shown to be equal to the flow of business and household savings less the money and government bond holdings of the aggregate private sector--that is, it equals the flow of investable surplus available to firms to finance investment. An increase in the budget deficit always raises short-run output growth, although the stimulus is slowed down by the accumulation of debt by firms. However, with a fixed private savings rate, an increase in the deficit lowers the warranted path. If raising the warranted path is desired, appropriate policies that would raise the social saaving rate would have to be implemented. As in Harrod, whether crowding out is harmful depends on the rate of warranted growth relative to the natural growth rate.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Levy Economics Institute, The in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number wp_315.
Date of creation: Oct 2000
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.levyinstitute.org
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fazzari, Steven M & Hubbard, R Glenn & Petersen, Bruce C, 1988. "Investment, Financing Decisions, and Tax Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 200-205, May.
- Sterman, John D., 1985. "A behavioral model of the economic long wave," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 17-53, March.
- Buiter, Willem H., 1977. "`Crowding out' and the effectiveness of fiscal policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 309-328, June.
- Stephen S. Everhart & Mariusz A. Sumlinski, 2001. "Trends in Private Investment in Developing Countries : Statistics for 1970-2000 and the Impact on Private Investment of Corruption and the Quality of Public Investment," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13989, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marie-Celeste Edwards).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.