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Gibson's Paradox, Monetary Policy, and the Emergence of Cycles

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Greg Hannsgen

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Abstract

Many empirical studies have found that interest rate increases have a positive effect on the price level. This paper pursues an obvious, but neglected explanation: interest payments are a cost of production that is at least in part passed on to customers. A model shows that the cost-push effect of inflation, long known as GibsonÕs paradox, intensifies destabilizing forces and can be involved in the generation of cycles. An empirical investigation finds that the positive association of interest rates with inflation or the log of the price level is present in data from the 1950s to present.

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Paper provided by Levy Economics Institute, The in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number 410.

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Date of creation: Jul 2004
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Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:410

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Leamer, Edward E., 1985. "Vector autoregressions for causal inference?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 255-304, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Greg Hannsgen, 2003. "Minsky's Acceleration Channel and the Role of Money," Macroeconomics 0308003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Joerg Bibow, 2005. "Liquidity Preference Theory Revisited—To Ditch or to Build on It?," Method and Hist of Econ Thought 0508003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Joerg Bibow, 2005. "Liquidity Preference Theory Revisited: To Ditch or to Build on It?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_427, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
  3. Greg Hannsgen, 2004. "The Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy: A Critical Review," Macroeconomics 0411004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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