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Is There A Trade-Off Between Inflation Variability And Output-Gap Variability in The EMU Countries?

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Author Info
Philip Arestis
Kostas Mouratidis

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Abstract

This paper examines two issues. First, we compare, based on the ratio of output-gap variability to inflation variability, the monetary policy performance of eleven EMU countries for the whole period of the EMS. Second, we examine whether the introduction of an implicit inflation-targeting by the EMU member countries after the Maastricht Treaty changed the trade-off between inflation variability and output-gap variability. We employ a stochastic volatility model for the whole period of the EMS and for two sub-periods (i.e., before and after the Maastricht Treaty). We find that for the whole period the trade-off ratio varies among EMU countries, especially in the case where industrial production is utilized to construct the output-gap variable. The results also vary from the point of view of how the trade-off variabilities change for each country before and after the Maastricht Treaty. The implication of these findings is that asymmetries exist in the euro area as a result of either different monetary policy preferences or different economic structures among the EMU's member countries.

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Paper provided by Levy Economics Institute, The in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number 359.

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Date of creation: Oct 2002
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Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:359

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  1. Philip Arestis & Andrew Brown & Kostas Mouratidis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2002. "The Euro: reflections on the first three years," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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