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The Causes of Euro Instability

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Author Info
Philip Arestis
Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal
Andrew Brown
Malcolm Sawyer

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Abstract

This paper examines the causes of the general decline in the value of the euro by assessing the various explanations proffered in existing literature, then offering a more satisfactory explanation. The argument prevalent in the literature--that the decline in value of the euro is due to "U.S. strength" rather than to any inherent difficulties with its imposition--is viewed as somewhat undeveloped. We suggest that U.S. strength is an important but only partial factor in euro decline; the other side of U.S. strength is eurozone weakness. We review the (poor) performance of the ECB and assess the level of macroeconomic convergence of eurozone countries. We conclude that a combination of eurozone weakness, endogenous to the inception of the euro, and U.S. strength is the most plausible explanation for the euro's decline in value. We find that although the future value of the euro is uncertain, the prospects for the eurozone will remain bleak as long as the current institutions underpinning the euro, with their inherent tendencies to promote deflation, are in place.

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Paper provided by Levy Economics Institute, The in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number 324.

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Date of creation: Mar 2001
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Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:324

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Feldstein, Martin, 2000. "The European Central Bank and the Euro: The First Year," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 345-354, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Jonathan Coppel & Martine Durand & Ignazio Visco, 2000. "EMU, The Euro and The European Policy Mix," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 232, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. M. Chinn, . "The Empirical Determinants of the Euro: Short and Long Run Perspectives," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2000-43, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  4. Ignazio Angeloni & Luca Dedola, 1999. "From the ERM to the euro: new evidence on economic and policy convergence among EU countries," Working Paper Series 4, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Eichengreen, Barry, 2000. "The Euro One Year On," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 355-368, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kaldor, Nicholas, 1972. "The Irrelevance of Equilibrium Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 82(328), pages 1237-55, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alex Izurieta, 2001. "Can Countries under A Common Currency Conduct Their Own Fiscal Policies?," Macroeconomics 0108008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Philip Arestis & Andrew Brown & Kostas Mouratidis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2002. "The Euro: reflections on the first three years," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2005. "European Monetary Union: Nominal Convergence, Real Divergence and Slow Growth? An investigation into the effects of changing macroeconomic policy institutions associated with monetary union," Macroeconomics 0501011, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alex Izurieta, 2001. "Can Countries under A Common Currency Conduct Their Own Fiscal Policies?," Economics Working Paper Archive 337, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
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