Rational expectations is typically taken to mean that, conditional on the information set and the relevant economic theory, the expectation formed by an economic agent should be equal to its mathematical expectation. This is correct only when actual inflation is “linear” in the aggregate inflationary expectation or if it is non-linear then forecasters are “small” and use “causal reasoning”. We show that if actual in- flation is non-linear in expected inflation and (1) there are “large” forecasters, or, (2) small/ large forecasters who use “evidential reasoning”, then the optimal forecast does not equal the mathematical expectation of the variable being forecast. We also show that when actual inflation is non-linear in aggregate inflation there might be no solution if one identifies rational expectations with equating the expectations to the mathematical average, while there is a solution using the “correct” forecasting rule under rational expectations. Furthermore, results suggest that published forecasts of inflation may be systematically different from the statistical averages of actual inflation and output, on average, need not equal the natural rate. The paper has fundamental implications for macroeconomic forecasting and policy, testing the assumptions and implications of market efficiency and for rational expectations in general.
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Leicester in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number
05/22.
Length: Date of creation: Aug 2005 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:05/22
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics University of Leicester, University Road. Leicester. LE1 7RH. UK Phone: +44 (0)116 252 2887 Fax: +44 (0)116 252 2908 Email: Web page: http://www.le.ac.uk/economics/
Find related papers by JEL classification: C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization
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