How Liquid Are UK Banks?
AbstractThis paper uses a relatively new quantitative model for estimating UK banks' liquidity risk. The model is called the Exposure-Based Cash-Flow-at-Risk (CFaR) model, which not only measures a bank's liquidity risk tolerance, but also helps to improve liquidity risk management through the provision of additional risk exposure information. Using data for the period 1997-2010, we provide evidence that there is variable funding pressure across the UK banking industry, which is forecasted to be slightly illiquid with a small amount of expected cash outflow (i.e. £0.06 billion) in 2011. In our sample of the six biggest UK banks, only the HSBC maintains positive CFaR with 95% confidence, which means that there is only a 5% chance that HSBC's cash flow will drop below £0.67 billion by the end of 2011. RBS is expected to face the largest liquidity risk with a 5% chance that the bank will face a cash outflow that year in excess of £40.29 billion. Our estimates also suggest Lloyds TSB's cash flow is the most volatile of the six biggest UK banks, because it has the biggest deviation between its downside cash flow (i.e. CFaR) and expected cash flow.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, Loughborough University in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 2012_08.
Date of creation: Jun 2012
Date of revision: Jun 2012
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Web page: http://www.lboro.ac.uk/departments/sbe/research/economics/index.html
More information through EDIRC
UK Balance Sheet Analysis; Liquidity Coverage; Net Cash Capital.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-07-08 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2012-07-08 (Banking)
- NEP-CBA-2012-07-08 (Central Banking)
- NEP-RMG-2012-07-08 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ray Barrell & E. Philip Davis & Iana Liadze & D, Karim, 2010. "Does the Current Account Balance Help to Predict Banking Crises in OECD Countries?," NIESR Discussion Papers 351, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2001. "Comparing Financial Systems," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262511258, January.
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