An Empirical Characterisation of Speculative Pressure: A Comprehensive Panel Study Using LDV Models in High Frequency
AbstractThis article provides a general and robust empirical examination of speculative pressure on various exchange rate regimes using an unusually large panel of monthly data for developed countries, analyzed within the framework of Limited-Dependent Variable (LDV) models with various innovations and extensions. In comparison to studies with lower frequency data, significant differences are found in linking crises with macroeconomic, financial and political fundamentals, despite the noise increasing tendency of higher frequency data. Considerable heterogeneity in the events surrounding crises is documented, rendering globally applicable rules for prediction and prevention inappropriate. The findings are robust to different specifications but the definition of crisis has a bearing on its predictability.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, Loughborough University in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 2004_8.
Date of creation: Aug 2004
Date of revision: Aug 2004
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Currency crises; speculative pressure; exchange rate; devaluation; Limited-dependent variable models.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-10-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2005-10-15 (Finance)
- NEP-IFN-2005-10-15 (International Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2005-10-15 (Macroeconomics)
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