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Aging Anxiety : Much Ado About Nothing ?

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Author Info
Monika BÜTLER
Georg KIRCHSTEIGER

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Abstract

Social security systems in most industrialized countries face severe financial problems due to adverse demographic changes. The increase in old-age dependency, however, will be spread over a period of approximately 50 years. The degree of technological progress necessary to offset the negative effects of aging might therefore be small. Using models with endogenous labor supply and with capital accumulation, we demonstrate that under plausible assumptions, current living standards can be maintained with a moderate rate of technological progress. The necessary rate of growth increases both in the size of the program and in the fraction of agents who exclusively depend on public pensions in retirement.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP in its series Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) with number 00.11.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: May 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lau:crdeep:00.11

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Postal: Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP, Internef, CH-1015 Lausanne
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Web page: http://www.hec.unil.ch/deep/publications-english/e-cahiers.htm

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Related research
Keywords: social security; aging; technological progress;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Feldstein, Martin S, 1985. "The Optimal Level of Social Security Benefits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(2), pages 303-20, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Meijdam, Lex & Verbon, Harrie A A, 1997. "Aging and Public Pensions in an Overlapping-Generations Model," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(1), pages 29-42, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Paul R. Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 1990. "Macroeconomic Effects Of Projected Population Aging In Industrial Countries," IMF Working Papers 90/5, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Glenn R. Hubbard & Jonathan Skinner & Stephen P. Zeldes, . "Precautionary Saving and Social Insurance," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 3-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    Other versions:
  5. Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge," Working papers 553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  6. Kjetil Storesletten, . "Sustaining Fiscal Policy Through Immigration," Homapage Papers _005, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Diamond, P. A., 1977. "A framework for social security analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 275-298, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Thomas Sargent & He Huang & Selo Imrohoroglu, . "Two Computational Experiments to Fund Social Security," Papers _002, Stanford University, Hoover Institution. [Downloadable!]
  9. Bohn, Henning, 1999. "Will social security and Medicare remain viable as the U.S. population is aging?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-53, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Martin Feldstein, 1995. "Would Privatizing Social Security Raise Economic Welfare?," NBER Working Papers 5281, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Albert Jaeger & Sheetal K. Chand, 1996. "Aging Populations and Public Pension Schemes," IMF Occasional Papers 147, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert P. Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 62, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  13. Gustman, Alan L. & Steinmeier, Thomas L., 1999. "Effects of pensions on savings: analysis with data from the health and retirement study," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 271-324, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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