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About the criteria of output coincidence for forecasts to determine the orientation of the economy. Application for France, 1980-1997

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Author Info
MESNARD, Louis de () (LATEC - CNRS - Université de Bourgogne)

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Abstract

This note indicates that the method of output coincidence for forecasts used to determine if sectors are demand-driven or supply-driven in an input-output framework mixes two effects, the structural effect (choosing between demand and supply driven models) and the effect of an exogenous factor (final demand or added-value). The note recalls that another method is possible, the comparison of the stability of technical and allocation coefficients, generalized by the biproportional filter: if for a sector, after biproportional filtering, column coefficients are more stable than row coefficients, then this sector is declared as not supply-driven (but one cannot decide that it is demand-driven anyway), and conversely. Keywords :Input-Output ; Demand ; Supply ; Change ; RAS ; Biproportion.

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File URL: http://www.u-bourgogne.fr/leg/documents-de-travail/e2000-04.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by LATEC, Laboratoire d'Analyse et des Techniques EConomiques, CNRS UMR 5118, Université de Bourgogne in its series LATEC - Document de travail - Economie (1991-2003) with number 2000-04.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2000
Date of revision:
Publication status: published : “Forecast Output Coincidence and Biproportion: Two Criteria to Determine the Orientation of an Economy. Comparison for France (1980-1997)”, in Applied Economics, 2002, 34, 16: 2085-91.
Handle: RePEc:lat:lateco:2000-04

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Postal: Pôle d'Economie et de Gestion - 2, bd Gabriel - BP 26611 - F-21066 Dijon cedex - France
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computational Techniques
C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Input-Output Models
D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis

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