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La demande touristique européenne en Tunisie

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  • OUERFELLI, Chokri

    (LATEC - CNRS UMR 5601 - Université de Bourgogne)

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    Abstract

    L'objectif de ce travail consiste à faire ressortir, à côté de la saisonnalité (en partie due au climat), certains indicateurs économiques susceptibles d'expliquer la demande adressée à l'industrie touristique tunisienne: le prix, le revenu et l'offre. Ces différents indicateurs sont inclus dans un modèle structurel visant à expliquer la demande touristique. Des méthodologies de modélisation, permettant d'appréhender la variabilité des séries touristiques, ont été proposées. Nous avons retenu le Modèle Structurel de Base et l'approche de Harvey (1990) comme stratégie d'estimation et de prévision. Nous avons retenu aussi le Modèle de Fonction de Transfert et la Spécification Autorégressive à Retards Echelonnés. Les équations finales à estimer de ces spécifications, basées sur des tests de vérification, ont montré leur aptitude à représenter pertinemment la demande touristique. La comparaison de ces différents modèles a contribué amplement à affiner les résultats empiriques notamment en ce qui concerne l'estimation des élasticités de la demande, et à améliorer la précision des prévisions qui en découlent. / The purpose of this paper is to delimit, with seasonality (in part caused by weather), certain economic indicators in order to explain european demand for tunisian tourist services: price, income and supply. These relevant indicators were included in a structural model to explain tourist demand. Modelling methodologies, allow to apprehend tourist time series variability, were proposed. We have suggest the Basic Structural Model and Harvey (1990)'s estimation and prediction strategy. We have also suggest Transfer Function Model and Autoregressive distributed Lag Distribution. Final equations, based on diagnostic checking, were suitably fitted tourist demand. The comparison of these different models widely contributed to refine empirical results particularly the estimation of demand elasticity, and to improve prediction accuracy.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by LATEC, Laboratoire d'Analyse et des Techniques EConomiques, CNRS UMR 5118, Université de Bourgogne in its series LATEC - Document de travail - Economie (1991-2003) with number 1998-14.

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    Length: 32 pages
    Date of creation: Nov 1998
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    Handle: RePEc:lat:lateco:1998-14

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    Keywords: Demande touristique induite; Saisonnalité; Modèle structurel de base; Fonction de transfert; Spécification autorégressive à retards échelonnés; élasticités; Supply induced demand; Seasonality; Basic structural model; Transfer function model; Autoregressive distributitive lags models; elasticity;

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    References

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    1. PICHERY, Marie-Claude & OUERFELLI, Chokri, 1998. "La non stationnarité dans les séries saisonnières : Application au tourisme tunisien," LATEC - Document de travail - Economie (1991-2003) 1998-09, LATEC, Laboratoire d'Analyse et des Techniques EConomiques, CNRS UMR 5118, Université de Bourgogne.
    2. Martin, Christine A. & Witt, Stephen F., 1989. "Forecasting tourism demand: A comparison of the accuracy of several quantitative methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-19.
    3. Harvey,Andrew C., 1990. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521321969, April.
    4. Harvey, A. C., 1986. "The effects of seat belt legislation on British road casualities: A case study in structural modelling : A.C. Harvey and J. Durbing, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 149 (1986) (in p," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 496-497.
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