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Desigualdad y Crecimiento. Un Análisis para las Provincias Argentinas

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  • Verónica Fossati
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    Abstract

    El trabajo analiza el efecto de la desigualdad inicial en la distribución personal del ingreso sobre el crecimiento económico e intenta identificar alguno de los mecanismos mediante los cuales se genera esta relación. Para ello se estima la relación entre el nivel de desigualdad inicial, medido a través del coeficiente de Gini, y la tasa de crecimiento del PBG per cápita para las provincias argentinas en el período 1984-1999, utilizando para la estimación distintos métodos de datos de panel. Los resultados encontrados indican que existiría, al menos en el corto o en el mediano plazo, una relación positiva entre el nivel de desigualdad inicial en la distribución personal del ingreso y la tasa de crecimiento. Los resultados son robustos al cambio en las definiciones de las variables explicativas y a distintas especificaciones del modelo. Si bien el análisis de los canales que relacionan ambas variables no es exhaustivo, entre los mecanismos que podrían estar generando la relación encontrada entre desigualdad y crecimiento se puede nombrar las restricciones crediticias y la inestabilidad política. La existencia de indivisibilidades en la inversión junto con la presencia de imperfecciones en el mercado de capitales podrían provocar la relación positiva encontrada entre desigualdad inicial y crecimiento. Por otra parte, una mayor desigualdad parece aumentar la probabilidad de que ocurran cambios en los gobiernos provinciales, y esto, al contrario de lo que se espera a priori, aumenta la tasa de crecimiento. También se encuentra evidencia de que algunos mecanismos, tales como el de economía política, podrían estar funcionando en la dirección contraria, es decir haciendo que la desigualdad resulte perjudicial para el crecimiento.

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    File URL: http://www.depeco.econo.unlp.edu.ar/doctrab/doc43.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata in its series Department of Economics, Working Papers with number 043.

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    Length: 43 pages
    Date of creation: Sep 2002
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    Handle: RePEc:lap:wpaper:043

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