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Outcome uncertainty and the couch potato audience

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Author Info
Rob Simmons
David Forrest
Babatunde Buraimo

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Abstract

Previous studies of attendance demand for professional team sports have failed to yield clear- cut findings on the importance of outcome uncertainty to consumers. But potentially fewer problems should arise in examining the link between outcome uncertainty and demand in the television market for team sports, which in the case of English Premier League football is in fact a more important component in total club revenue. This study models both the choice of which games to show and the size of audience attracted by each game, exploiting data on audience sizes for games between 1993 and 2002. We propose a new measure of match outcome uncertainty and, from our results, both the broadcaster and the audience appear interested in competitive balance.

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File URL: http://www.lums.lancs.ac.uk/publications/viewpdf/000298/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department in its series Working Papers with number 000298.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:lan:wpaper:000298

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Related research
Keywords: soccer; television; competitive balance; outcome uncertainty;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Baimbridge, Mark & Cameron, Samuel & Dawson, Peter, 1996. "Satellite Television and the Demand for Football: A Whole New Ball Game?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(3), pages 317-33, August.
  2. Stefan Szymanski, 2003. "The Economic Design of Sporting Contests," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 1137-1187, December.
  3. Georg Stadtmann & Dirk Czarnitzki, 2002. "Uncertainty of outcome versus reputation: Empirical evidence for the First German Football Division," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 101-112. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Avery, Christopher & Chevalier, Judith, 1999. "Identifying Investor Sentiment from Price Paths: The Case of Football Betting," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(4), pages 493-521, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jeffery Borland, 2003. "Demand for Sport," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 478-502, Winter.
  6. Peel, David A & Thomas, Dennis A, 1992. "The Demand for Football: Some Evidence on Outcome Uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 323-31.
  7. Kuypers, Tim, 2000. "Information and Efficiency: An Empirical Study of a Fixed Odds Betting Market," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 32(11), pages 1353-63, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Cave, Martin & Crandall, Robert W, 2001. "Sports Rights and the Broadcast Industry," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(469), pages F4-26, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hausman, Jerry A & Leonard, Gregory K, 1997. "Superstars in the National Basketball Association: Economic Value and Policy," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(4), pages 586-624, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Steven D. Levitt, 2004. "Why are gambling markets organised so differently from financial markets?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 223-246, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Jennett, Nicholas I, 1984. "Attendances, Uncertainty of Outcome and Policy in Scottish League Football," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 31(2), pages 176-98, June.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Rob Simmons & David Forrest, 2005. "New issues in attendance demand: the case of the English football league," Working Papers 002162, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kevin Alavy & Alison Gaskell & Stephanie Leach & Stefan Szymanski, 2006. "On the Edge of Your Seat: Demand for Football on Television and the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis," Working Papers 0631, International Association of Sports Economists. [Downloadable!]
  3. Men-Andri Benz & Leif Brandes & Egon Franck, 2006. "I know what you did last weekend- or do I? Introducing mental anchoring to the demand for sport," Working Papers 0047, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU).
  4. Rob Simmons & Babatunde Buraimo, 2006. "Market size and attendance in English Premier League football," Working Papers 003092, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. Babatunde Buraimo, 2008. "Stadium attendance and television audience demand in English league football," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(6), pages 513-523. [Downloadable!]
  6. Rob Simmons & Babatunde Buraimo, 2007. "A tale of two audiences: spectators, television viewers and outcome uncertainty in Spanish football," Working Papers 005289, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ferda HALICIOGLU, 2005. "Forecasting the Professional Team Sporting Events: Evidence from Euro 2000 and 2004 Football Tournaments," Industrial Organization 0508001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Men-Andri Benz & Leif Brandes & Egon Franck, 2006. "Do Soccer Associations Really Spend on a Good Thing? Empirical Evidence on Heterogeneity in the Consumer Response to Match Uncertainty of Outcome," Working Papers 0048, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU), revised 2008.
    Other versions:
  9. Dawson, P. & Downward, P., 2009. "Participation, Spectatorship and Media Coverage in Sport," Department of Economics Working Papers 16651, University of Bath, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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