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A longitudinal analysis of the decision to drop out of post-compulsory education

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Author Info
Steve Bradley
Pam Lenton

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Abstract

In this paper we analyse the magnitude, timing, determinants and outcomes of dropping out of post-compulsory education over the period 1985-94. We use data from the Youth Cohort Surveys for England and Wales to estimate non-parametric single and competing risks duration models allowing for the effects of unobserved heterogeneity and time varying covariates. By the mid-1990s approximately 1 in 10 young people dropped out of post-compulsory education, especially in April and July. Dropouts were more likely to get jobs rather than become unemployed and the most important predictor of the likelihood of dropping out was prior attainment.

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Paper provided by Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department in its series Working Papers with number 000150.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:lan:wpaper:000150

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  1. Neal, Derek, 1997. "The Effects of Catholic Secondary Schooling on Educational Achievement," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(1), pages 98-123, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Chuang, Hwei-Lin, 1994. "An Empirical Study of Re-enrolment Behaviour for Male High-School Dropouts," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 26(11), pages 1071-81, November.
  3. M. J. Andrews & S. Bradley & D. Stott, 2002. "Matching the Demand for and Supply of Training in the School-to-Work Transition," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages C201-C219, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Manski, C.F. & Sandefur, G.D. & Mclanahan, S. & Powers, D., 1990. "Alternative Estimates Of The Effect Of Family Stucture During Adolescence On Hight School Graduation," Working papers 90-31, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  5. Gary S. Becker & Nigel Tomes, 1976. "Child Endowments, and the Quantity and Quality of Children," NBER Working Papers 0123, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. V. Vandenberghe, 2000. "Leaving Teaching in the French-Speaking Community of Belgium: A Duration Analysis," Education Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 221-239, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Hanushek, Eric A, 1992. "The Trade-Off between Child Quantity and Quality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(1), pages 84-117, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Geraint Johnes & Robert McNabb, 2004. "Never Give up on the Good Times: Student Attrition in the UK," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(1), pages 23-47, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-38, February.
  10. Zvi Eckstein & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 1999. "Why Youths Drop Out of High School: The Impact of Preferences, Opportunities, and Abilities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1295-1340, November.
  11. Steve Bradley & Jim Taylor & Anh Ngoc Nguyen, 2001. "High school dropouts: a longitudinal analysis," Working Papers 000037, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
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  1. Pamela Lenton, 2006. "Where do I go and what should I do? Routes through further education," Working Papers 2006014, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2006. [Downloadable!]
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