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We study whether financial analysts' concern for preserving good relationships with firms' managers motivates them to issue pessimistic or optimistic forecasts. Based on a dataset of one-yearahead EPS forecasts issued by 4 648 analysts concerning 241 French firms (1997-2007), we regress the analysts' forecast accuracy on its unintentional determinants. We then decompose the fixed effect of the regression and we use the firm-analyst pair effect as a measure of the intensity of the firm-analyst relationship. We find that a low (high) firm-analyst pair effect is associated with a low (high) forecast error. This observation suggests that pessimism and optimism result from the analysts' concern for cultivating their relationship with the firm's management

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  • Anne-Gael Vaubourg

    ()

  • Valdete Berisha-Krasniqui

    (Larefi, Université Bordeaux IV)

  • Sébastien Galanti

    (LEO, Université d'Orléans)

  • Christophe Hurlin

    (LEO, Université d'Orléans)

  • Régis Breton

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France)

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    File URL: http://laf.u-bordeaux4.fr/RePEc/CR_13EFI04.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Larefi, Université Bordeaux 4 in its series Larefi Working Papers with number 1304.

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    Length: 49 pages
    Date of creation: Apr 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:laf:wpaper:cr1304

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    Related research

    Keywords: financial analysts; earnings forecasts; soft information; panel regression;

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    6. Womack, Kent L, 1996. " Do Brokerage Analysts' Recommendations Have Investment Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 137-67, March.
    7. Ajay Subramanian & Jonathan Clarke, 2004. "Dynamic Forecasting Behavior by Analysts: Theory and Evidence," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 546, Econometric Society.
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    16. Hamid Mehran & Rene M. Stulz, 2006. "The Economics of Conflicts of Interest in Financial Institutions," NBER Working Papers 12695, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Lauren Cohen & Andrea Frazzini & Christopher Malloy, 2010. "Sell-Side School Ties," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1409-1437, 08.
    18. Fogarty, Timothy J. & Rogers, Rodney K., 2005. "Financial analysts' reports: an extended institutional theory evaluation," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 331-356, May.
    19. Andrew R. Jackson, 2005. "Trade Generation, Reputation, and Sell-Side Analysts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 673-717, 04.
    20. Robert Libby & James E. Hunton & Hun-Tong Tan & Nicholas Seybert, 2008. "Relationship Incentives and the Optimistic/Pessimistic Pattern in Analysts' Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 173-198, 03.
    21. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
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