We study whether financial analysts' concern for preserving good relationships with firms' managers motivates them to issue pessimistic or optimistic forecasts. Based on a dataset of one-yearahead EPS forecasts issued by 4 648 analysts concerning 241 French firms (1997-2007), we regress the analysts' forecast accuracy on its unintentional determinants. We then decompose the fixed effect of the regression and we use the firm-analyst pair effect as a measure of the intensity of the firm-analyst relationship. We find that a low (high) firm-analyst pair effect is associated with a low (high) forecast error. This observation suggests that pessimism and optimism result from the analysts' concern for cultivating their relationship with the firm's management
AbstractNo abstract is available for this item.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Larefi, Université Bordeaux 4 in its series Larefi Working Papers with number 1304.
Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2013
Date of revision:
financial analysts; earnings forecasts; soft information; panel regression;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C59 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Other
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
- G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael B. Clement & Senyo Y. Tse, 2005. "Financial Analyst Characteristics and Herding Behavior in Forecasting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 307-341, 02.
- Barber, Brad M. & Lehavy, Reuven & Trueman, Brett, 2007. "Comparing the stock recommendation performance of investment banks and independent research firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 490-517, August.
- Hausman, Jerry A & Taylor, William E, 1981.
"Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects,"
Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1377-98, November.
- Cen, Ling & Hilary, Gilles & Wei, K. C. John, 2013. "The Role of Anchoring Bias in the Equity Market: Evidence from Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts and Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(01), pages 47-76, February.
- David Burgstahler & Michael Eames, 2006. "Management of Earnings and Analysts' Forecasts to Achieve Zero and Small Positive Earnings Surprises," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5-6), pages 633-652.
- Womack, Kent L, 1996. " Do Brokerage Analysts' Recommendations Have Investment Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 137-67, March.
- Ajay Subramanian & Jonathan Clarke, 2004.
"Dynamic Forecasting Behavior by Analysts: Theory and Evidence,"
Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings
546, Econometric Society.
- Clarke, Jonathan & Subramanian, Ajay, 2006. "Dynamic forecasting behavior by analysts: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 81-113, April.
- Lin, Hsiou-wei & McNichols, Maureen F., 1998. "Underwriting relationships, analysts' earnings forecasts and investment recommendations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 101-127, February.
- Patricia C. O'Brien & Maureen F. Mcnichols & Lin Hsiou-Wei, 2005. "Analyst Impartiality and Investment Banking Relationships," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 623-650, 09.
- John C. Easterwood & Stacey R. Nutt, 1999. "Inefficiency in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: Systematic Misreaction or Systematic Optimism?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1777-1797, October.
- Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 2003. "Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 313-351, 02.
- Chan, Louis K. C. & Karceski, Jason & Lakonishok, Josef, 2007. "Analysts' Conflicts of Interest and Biases in Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(04), pages 893-913, December.
- Jacob, John & Lys, Thomas Z. & Neale, Margaret A., 1999. "Expertise in forecasting performance of security analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 51-82, November.
- Terence Lim, 2001. "Rationality and Analysts' Forecast Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 369-385, 02.
- Breusch, Trevor & Ward, Michael B & Nguyen, Hoa & Kompas, Tom, 2010. "On the fixed-effects vector decomposition," MPRA Paper 21452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hamid Mehran & Rene M. Stulz, 2006.
"The Economics of Conflicts of Interest in Financial Institutions,"
NBER Working Papers
12695, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mehran, Hamid & Stulz, Rene M., 2007. "The economics of conflicts of interest in financial institutions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 267-296, August.
- Mehran, Hamid & Stulz, Rene M., 2006. "The Economics of Conflicts of Interest in Financial Institutions," Working Paper Series 2006-21, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
- Lauren Cohen & Andrea Frazzini & Christopher Malloy, 2010.
"Sell-Side School Ties,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1409-1437, 08.
- Fogarty, Timothy J. & Rogers, Rodney K., 2005. "Financial analysts' reports: an extended institutional theory evaluation," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 331-356, May.
- Andrew R. Jackson, 2005. "Trade Generation, Reputation, and Sell-Side Analysts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 673-717, 04.
- Robert Libby & James E. Hunton & Hun-Tong Tan & Nicholas Seybert, 2008. "Relationship Incentives and the Optimistic/Pessimistic Pattern in Analysts' Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 173-198, 03.
- Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
- Christopher J. Malloy, 2005. "The Geography of Equity Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 719-755, 04.
- Clement, Michael B., 1999. "Analyst forecast accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 285-303, July.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Cyril Mesmer).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.