The Dynamics of Energy-Grain Prices with Open Interest
AbstractThis paper examines the short- and long-run daily relationships for a grain-energy nexus that includes the prices of corn, crude oil, ethanol, gasoline, soybeans, and sugar, and their open interest. The empirical results demonstrate the presence of these relationships in this nexus, and underscore the importance of ethanol and soybeans in all these relationships. In particular, ethanol and be considered as a catalyst in this nexus because of its significance as a loading factor, a long-run error corrector and a short-run adjuster. Ethanol leads all commodities in the price discovery process in the long run. The negative cross-price open interest effects suggest that there is a money outflow from all commodities in response to increases in open interest positions in the corn futures markets, indicating that active arbitrage activity takes place in those markets. On the other hand, an increase in the soybean open interest contributes to fund inflows in the corn futures market and the other futures markets, leading to more speculative activities in these markets. In connection with open interest, the ethanol market fails because of its thin market. Finally, it is interesting to note that the long-run equilibrium (cointegrating relationship), speeds of adjustment and open interest across markets have strengthened significantly during the 2009-2011 economic recovery period, compared with the full and 2007-2009 Great Recession periods.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research in its series KIER Working Papers with number 776.
Date of creation: May 2011
Date of revision:
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Energy-grain price nexus; open interest; futures prices; crude oil; gasoline; corn; soybean; suger; arbitrage; speculation.;
Other versions of this item:
- Shawkat Hammoudeh & Soodabeh Sarafrazi & Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer, 2011. "The Dynamics of Energy-Grain Prices with Open Interest," Working Papers in Economics 11/24, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Hammoudeh, S.M. & Sarafrazi, S. & Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J., 2011. "The Dynamics of Energy-Grain Prices with Open Interest," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2011-19, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Shawkat Hammoudeh & Soodabeh Sarafrazi & Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer, 2011. "The Dynamics of Energy-Grain Prices with Open Interest," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2011-18, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
- Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
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