The Dynamics of Energy-Grain Prices with Open Interest
AbstractThis paper examines the short- and long-run daily relationships for a grain-energy nexus that includes the prices of corn, crude oil, ethanol, gasoline, soybeans, and sugar, and their open interest. The empirical results demonstrate the presence of these relationships in this nexus, and underscore the importance of ethanol and soybeans in all these relationships. In particular, ethanol and be considered as a catalyst in this nexus because of its significance as a loading factor, a long-run error corrector and a short-run adjuster. Ethanol leads all commodities in the price discovery process in the long run. The negative cross-price open interest effects suggest that there is a money outflow from all commodities in response to increases in open interest positions in the corn futures markets, indicating that active arbitrage activity takes place in those markets. On the other hand, an increase in the soybean open interest contributes to fund inflows in the corn futures market and the other futures markets, leading to more speculative activities in these markets. In connection with open interest, the ethanol market fails because of its thin market. Finally, it is interesting to note that the long-run equilibrium (cointegrating relationship), speeds of adjustment and open interest across markets have strengthened significantly during the 2009-2011 economic recovery period, compared with the full and 2007-2009 Great Recession periods.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research in its series KIER Working Papers with number 776.
Date of creation: May 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Yoshida-Honmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501
Web page: http://www.kier.kyoto-u.ac.jp/eng/index.html
More information through EDIRC
Energy-grain price nexus; open interest; futures prices; crude oil; gasoline; corn; soybean; suger; arbitrage; speculation.;
Other versions of this item:
- Hammoudeh, S.M. & Sarafrazi, S. & Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J., 2011. "The Dynamics of Energy-Grain Prices with Open Interest," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2011-19, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Shawkat Hammoudeh & Soodabeh Sarafrazi & Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer, 2011. "The Dynamics of Energy-Grain Prices with Open Interest," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2011-18, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
- Shawkat Hammoudeh & Soodabeh Sarafrazi & Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer, 2011. "The Dynamics of Energy-Grain Prices with Open Interest," Working Papers in Economics 11/24, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
- Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dahlgran, Roger A., 2009. "Inventory and Transformation Hedging Effectiveness in Corn Crushing," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(1), April.
- Simla Tokgoz & Amani Elobeid & Jacinto Fabiosa & Dermot J. Hayes & Bruce A. Babcock & Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu & Fengxia Dong & Chad E. Hart, 2008.
"Bottlenecks, Drought, and Oil Price Spikes: Impact on U.S. Ethanol and Agricultural Sectors,"
Review of Agricultural Economics,
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 604-622.
- Tokgoz, Simla & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Hayes, Dermot J. & Babcock, Bruce A. & Yu, Tun-Hsiang & Dong, Fengxia & Hart, Chad E., 2008. "Bottlenecks, Drought, and Oil Price Spikes: Impact on U.S. Ethanol and Agricultural Sectors," Staff General Research Papers 12935, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Gohin, Alexandre & Treguer, David, 2010. "On the (De)Stabilization Effects of Biofuels: Relative Contributions of Policy Instruments and Market Forces," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(1), April.
- Franken, Jason R.V. & Parcell, Joseph L., 2003. "Cash Ethanol Cross-Hedging Opportunities," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(03), December.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Wallace E. Tyner, 2010. "The integration of energy and agricultural markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(s1), pages 193-201, November.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Kelvin Balcombe & George Rapsomanikis, 2008. "Bayesian Estimation and Selection of Nonlinear Vector Error Correction Models: The Case of the Sugar-Ethanol-Oil Nexus in Brazil," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(3), pages 658-668.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ryo Okui).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.