Modelling Conditional Correlations in the Volatility of Asian Rubber Spot and Futures Returns
AbstractAsia is presently the most important market for the production and consumption of natural rubber. World prices of rubber are not only subject to changes in demand, but also to speculation regarding future markets. Japan and Singapore are the major futures markets for rubber, while Thailand is one of the world's largest producers of rubber. As rubber prices are influenced by external markets, it is important to analyse the relationship between the relevant markets in Thailand, Japan and Singapore. The analysis is conducted using several alternative multivariate GARCH models. The empirical results indicate that the constant conditional correlations arising from the CCC model lie in the low to medium range. The results from the VARMA-GARCH model and the VARMA-AGARCH model suggest the presence of volatility spillovers and asymmetric effects of positive and negative return shocks on conditional volatility. Finally, the DCC model suggests that the conditional correlations can vary dramatically over time. In general, the dynamic conditional correlations in rubber spot and futures returns shocks can be independent or interdependent.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research in its series KIER Working Papers with number 723.
Date of creation: Sep 2010
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Multivariate GARCH; volatility spillovers; conditional correlations; spot returns; futures returns;
Other versions of this item:
- Chang, Chia-Lin & Khamkaew, Thanchanok & McAleer, Michael & Tansuchat, Roengchai, 2011. "Modelling conditional correlations in the volatility of Asian rubber spot and futures returns," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 1482-1490.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Thanchanok Khamkaew & Michael McAleer & Roengchai Tansuchat, 2010. "Modelling Conditional Correlations in the Volatility of Asian Rubber Spot and Futures Returns," Working Papers in Economics 10/38, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Tanchanok Khamkaew & Roengchai Tansuchat & Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer, 2009. "Modelling Conditional Correlations in the Volatility of Asian Rubber Spot and Futures Returns," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-675, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Tanchanok Khamkaew & Roengchai Tansuchat & Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer, 2009. "Modelling Conditional Correlations in the Volatility of Asian Rubber Spot and Futures Returns," CARF F-Series CARF-F-175, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, revised Nov 2009.
- Khamkaew, T. & Tansuchat, R. & Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J., 2009. "Modelling conditional correlations in the volatility of Asian rubber spot and futures returns," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-34, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
- Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance
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